Tru Probability

Tru Probability: Make Your Pricing Decision With Confidence, Not Guesswork.

Most sellers choose a list price without knowing what the data says about their options. This analysis gives our agents a way to change that conversation. Before you list, you see what the historical data and current market conditions suggest will happen at each price point you are considering.

Clarity Before You Commit to a Price.


Choosing a list price is one of the most consequential decisions in a home sale. Price too high and buyers pass before they ever walk through your door. Price at market and you capture the buyers who are actively looking right now. Tru Probability is not about telling you what to do. It is about giving you and your agent a clear view of your options and what the data says is likely to happen with each one. You make the decision. We make sure you have the information to make it with confidence.

Know Your Options Before You List

See what the historical data suggests will happen at different price points before you commit. Your pricing decision becomes informed rather than instinctive.

See the Full Market Picture

Your home does not exist in a bubble. Tru Probability draws on current market conditions, seasonal trends, buyer activity, and historical Rutherford County data to give you context no single comp can provide.

Guided by Experienced Agents

Tru Probability is not a tool you navigate alone. Our experienced agents guide the conversation, apply local knowledge, and help you understand what the numbers mean for your specific situation.

We Do Not Look at Your Home in a Bubble.


What makes Tru Probability different from a standard market analysis is the breadth of data that goes into it. Most pricing conversations focus on a handful of comparable sales. Tru Probability draws on the full picture of what is happening in Rutherford County right now and what has historically happened to homes in your price range.

Before your listing consultation, our agents pull data across four dimensions so that when they sit down with you, the probability ranges they show you reflect your home in the actual market it will compete in. Not an idealized version of the market. The real one, this week.

Historical Listing Outcomes

What has actually happened to homes in your price range in Rutherford County over the past 12 months. How many sold. How many did not. How long they took. What they closed at relative to their original asking price. This is the foundation the probability ranges are built on.

Current Market Conditions

The Market Health Score, active inventory levels, months of supply, and pending activity in your price range as of this week. The market you are listing into right now may look very different from the market six months ago. Current conditions are factored in.

Buyer Activity and Showings

How many buyers are actively showing homes in your price range right now and what showing activity has looked like over recent weeks. Buyer foot traffic is a leading indicator of where contract activity is heading. It feeds directly into the showing expectations your agent shares with you.

Seasonal and Rate Environment

Where we are in the selling season and what the current mortgage rate environment means for buyer demand in your price range. Both affect how quickly a correctly priced home moves and what showing activity looks like in the first two weeks of a listing.

What This Means for You

When your Turner Victory Team agent shows you the probability ranges at your listing consultation, those numbers are not pulled from a formula. They reflect what comparable sellers in your price range have experienced in this market, adjusted for what is happening right now. That combination of historical depth and current market context is what gives the analysis meaning and what gives you confidence in the decision you make.

See Your Options. Choose With Confidence.


At your listing consultation, your Turner Victory Team agent will show you probability ranges for going under contract at different price points. The comparison between a market-aligned price and a price above market makes the likely consequences of each option visible before you decide. That is the conversation Tru Probability was built to support.

30 Day Range

The first 30 days capture the most motivated buyers in the market right now. A correctly priced home competes for this group from day one. The 30-day range shows you how likely your home is to go under contract in this window at your chosen price.

60 Day Range

As days on market grow, buyer perception changes. The 60-day range reflects the cumulative picture including buyers who return after initial browsing and new buyers who enter the market. Understanding how the range shifts from 30 to 60 days helps you see the cost of starting too high.

90 Day Range

Homes that reach 90 days face a significantly harder path based on what the historical data shows. The 90-day range and the likelihood of not selling under the current listing are part of the full picture your agent shares so you can make a truly informed decision from the start.

The First Two Weeks Tell You Everything.


Alongside the contract probability ranges, your agent will share an expected showing range for the critical first 14 days based on your chosen price. This is built from Rutherford County Realtracs showing data for comparable homes in your price bracket, adjusted for current market conditions and seasonal factors.

The showing expectation matters because it gives you and your agent an early signal. If your home is not generating showings in the range the data suggests at your price, that is meaningful information. Your agent can have that conversation with you early rather than waiting until days on market have accumulated too far to recover cleanly.

The Launch Window

Days 1 to 14

The buyers who are actively looking right now will see your listing almost immediately after it goes live. They are pre-qualified, motivated, and ready to move. These are the buyers a correctly priced, well-presented home captures in the first week. Capturing them requires being in the right price range before you list, not after the market tells you.

The expected showing range for days 1 to 14 at your price point gives you a benchmark. Your agent will check in with you against that benchmark early. Two scenarios are worth understanding before you list.

Scenario A Below Expected Showings

Buyers are not choosing to see your home in person. The price is likely filtering them out before they ever schedule a visit. This is the clearest signal that a pricing adjustment is worth discussing sooner rather than later.

Scenario B Showings Without Offers

Your home is passing the online test but not the in-person test. Buyers are interested enough to visit but not making offers. The price may be competitive but something about the condition or presentation is the deciding factor.

Understanding both scenarios before you list means you and your agent have a shared framework for reading the market response in real time. That shared understanding is part of what makes the listing process less stressful and more clear.

The 90-Day Reality

What the Data Shows About Homes That Sit

Tru Probability includes what the historical data shows about homes in your price range that reach 90 days on market in Rutherford County without a contract. The majority of those homes do not sell under that listing. Of those that eventually do sell at 90 days or beyond, they typically close well below their original asking price after a significantly longer and more stressful process.

Your agent shares this data not to pressure you into a lower price but because you deserve to see the full picture before you decide. A seller who understands all the likely paths makes a better decision than one who finds out later what the options really were. That clarity is the entire point of Tru Probability.

The Data Informs. Our Agents Guide. You Decide.

This is a tool our experienced agents use. It does not make decisions and it does not replace judgment. What it does is give our agents a structured, data-backed way to show you your options clearly so that when you choose a price, you choose it with confidence rather than uncertainty.

The agents on the Turner Victory Team bring local market knowledge, comparable sale context, and years of experience guiding sellers through this exact conversation. This data gives them better context. Their experience gives that data meaning. Together, that combination is unlike any other listing consultation in Murfreesboro. Learn more about why the Turner Victory Team is the right choice for your home sale.

Common Questions About Tru Probability

Tru Probability is a data-guided listing analysis that Turner Victory Team agents use at seller consultations. It draws on historical Rutherford County listing data, current market conditions, buyer activity trends, and seasonal factors to generate probability ranges showing the likelihood of going under contract in 30, 60, or 90 days at different price points. It also provides expected showing activity for the first 14 days. The goal is to give sellers a clear view of their options and what the data suggests will happen with each one so they can make that decision with confidence rather than guesswork.
A standard market analysis shows you what comparable homes have sold for. Tru Probability shows you what the data suggests is likely to happen to your listing at different price points. A standard analysis looks backward at closed sales. Tru Probability combines that historical foundation with current market conditions, active inventory levels, buyer showing activity, and seasonal factors to give you a forward-looking view of your options. Your home is evaluated in the context of the full market it will compete in, not just a handful of comparable sales.
No. Tru Probability ranges are data-guided estimates based on historical Rutherford County listing outcomes and current market conditions. Real estate results depend on many factors including property condition, presentation, specific location within a neighborhood, and buyer pool activity that no model can fully predict. The ranges are designed to give you and your agent a clearer picture of the likely consequences of your pricing decision. Our agents are clear about this distinction and use the ranges as a starting point for a deeper conversation, not as a prediction.
The analysis draws on four data dimensions: historical listing outcomes for your price range in Rutherford County including sold, expired, and cancelled results; current market conditions including the Market Health Score, active inventory, and months of supply; buyer showing activity and foot traffic trends for your price bracket from Realtracs showing data; and the seasonal and mortgage rate environment at the time of your consultation. All of it is Rutherford County specific, not national averages. The combination gives your agent context that no single comparable sale or standard market analysis can provide.
The showing expectation is a range of expected showing activity in the first 14 days of your listing based on your chosen price point. It gives you and your agent a shared benchmark to evaluate the market response early. If your home comes in below the expected showing range in the first two weeks, that is a meaningful signal worth discussing before days on market stack up. If you are getting showings but no offers, that points to a different conversation about presentation. Having that framework agreed on before you list makes the early weeks of your listing more clear and less stressful.
This analysis is available through a listing consultation with the Turner Victory Team. The data is most useful when an experienced agent is guiding the conversation, applying local market knowledge, and helping you understand what the numbers mean for your specific home. The consultation is free and there is no obligation. If you are considering selling in Rutherford County, visit our seller guide to learn more about our approach, then reach out and we will walk you through the full analysis for your home.
Tru Insights is the Turner Victory Team’s market data platform that tracks Tru Days on Market, Tru Original List Price, the Market Health Score, and weekly market snapshots for Rutherford County and Williamson County. Tru Probability draws on that same data foundation and applies it to a seller’s specific home and pricing decision. Tru Insights tells you what the market is doing. Tru Probability helps your agent show you what the data suggests your listing will do at different price points. Learn more about Tru Insights here.
This analysis is currently built on Rutherford County historical listing data and is calibrated for the Rutherford County market. The Turner Victory Team also serves buyers and sellers in Williamson County. If you are considering selling in Williamson County, reach out and we can discuss how our data and experience in that market applies to your situation.

See What the Data Says About Your Options Before You List.

The Turner Victory Team will run the full Tru Probability analysis for your home. You will see the contract probability ranges, the showing expectations, and what the historical data and current market conditions suggest will happen at each price point you are considering. No pressure. No obligation. Just clarity before you decide.

Reach Out Or call us directly: 615-586-0900
Tru Probability analysis is built on Rutherford County historical listing data from Realtracs MLS processed through the Turner Victory Team Tru Insights platform. Probability ranges are estimates based on historical outcomes and current market conditions and are not guaranteed results. Real estate outcomes depend on many factors including property condition, presentation, and buyer activity. © 2026 Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate. 615-586-0900