Is the Williamson County Market Slowing Down? What the Numbers Show
Yes. Showing activity dropped in every Williamson County price range except above $2 million between mid July and mid August 2026, and active inventory reached 1,777, the highest in at least five years.
What makes this different from a normal seasonal dip is that the Williamson County market slowing down is happening everywhere at once. There is no price range carrying the county right now.
Is the Williamson County market slowing down? It is the question John Turner gets asked most often in Franklin and Brentwood right now, and it deserves a real answer rather than a feeling. So this week the Turner Victory Team went to the leading indicators instead of the lagging ones.
Closings tell you what happened two months ago. Contracts tell you what somebody decided two or three weeks ago. Showings tell you what buyers are doing this week. If you want to know whether the Williamson County market slowing down is real or just a summer lull, that is where you look first.
Williamson County is now averaging about one showing per listing per week. The peak came around the 13th week of the year, near the first of April. That alone would not prove the Williamson County market slowing down, but it is where the evidence starts.
Every week the Turner Victory Team tracks Williamson County conditions through live Realtracs MLS data and our Tru Insights™ platform. This report covers the week ending August 29, 2026, and serves Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville, Spring Hill, Thompsons Station, College Grove, Arrington, and Fairview. Full charts are on the Williamson County market update page and the interactive Williamson County market charts.
The Clearest Sign of the Williamson County Market Slowing Down
Realtracs publishes the underlying showing counts. The Turner Victory Team breaks them down by price band and holds that band list steady, so a number never moves just because the source skipped a range on a given day.
Here is the comparison. The week of July 18 through 24 against the week of August 15 through 21, four weeks apart, measured as showings per active listing per week.
| Price Range | Jul 18-24 | Aug 15-21 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Under $500,000 | 1.54 | 1.43 | Down |
| $500,000 to $599,999 | 1.92 | 1.62 | Down |
| $600,000 to $699,999 | 2.35 | 1.63 | Down sharply |
| $700,000 to $799,999 | 1.28 | 1.00 | Down |
| $800,000 to $999,999 | 1.57 | 1.38 | Down |
| $1,000,000 to $1,490,000 | 1.65 | 1.20 | Down |
| $1,500,000 to $1,990,000 | 1.12 | 0.90 | Down |
| $2,000,000 to $2,990,000 | 0.78 | 0.87 | Up |
| $3,000,000 and above | 0.32 | 0.55 | Up |
Seven of nine ranges declined, which is the single strongest piece of evidence for the Williamson County market slowing down. Only above $2 million went the other way. On the four week trend line the picture holds, with one small exception: the $500,000 to $600,000 range showed a slight gain. The steepest decline on that trend is the $1 million to $1.5 million range.
What the two lines say about the Williamson County market slowing down
The weekly showings chart carries two lines now. One is the typical listing, where half the market gets more showings and half gets fewer. The other is the market overall, which counts every showing including the busy pockets.
In some markets those lines pull apart, which means a few price points are carrying everything while most homes sit quiet. In Williamson County right now there is no meaningful gap between them. The Williamson County market slowing down is not confined to one segment.
Inventory Is the Highest in at Least Five Years
Williamson County has 1,777 active listings. That is the highest number of homes on the market the Turner Victory Team has recorded in at least five years of data.
One caveat belongs with that number. Williamson County has grown enormously, and the U.S. Census Bureau shows just how much, so more homes on the market does not automatically mean more homes per household. Per capita, the picture is less dramatic than the raw count. Even so, the direction is clear.
Rising inventory is the second piece of evidence for the Williamson County market slowing down. Months of supply sits at 3.93 and has started separating from where it sat a year ago rather than tracking alongside it. More homes are sitting relative to how many are going under contract.
Why inventory keeps building even with fewer new listings
This is the part of the Williamson County market slowing down that surprises people. New listings have come in below the past couple of years in seven of the last eight weeks, and well below last year. With that few homes arriving, you would expect active inventory to fall.
It has not, because pendings have been trailing too. Earlier this year Williamson County was outpacing last year on contracts. That reversed. Homes are not going under contract fast enough to offset even a reduced number of new listings, so the pile grows anyway.
Right now 618 homes in Williamson County have been on the market at least 90 days. That is roughly 35% of all active inventory. More than one in three. If you want the mechanics of how a listing gets to that point, our post on avoiding a stale listing covers it.
This Week in Williamson County
The 30 year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.66%. Freddie Mac publishes the weekly national average. The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score™ for Williamson County is 40. That is a balanced market leaning about as far toward buyers as it can while still being called balanced. At 39 it becomes a buyer’s market outright. The score has been trending down, which for a buyer means opportunity has been building steadily.
New construction is nearly half of new supply
Of the 1,777 active listings, 28.8% are new construction. Of the 139 homes that came on the market this week, 44.6% were new construction. But of the 102 homes that went under contract, only 21.6% were new construction.
Read that again. Builders listed roughly twice the share they sold, and that gap is its own contribution to the Williamson County market slowing down. New construction is arriving faster than it is clearing, and it is concentrated in the middle of the county, from the $500,000s through $1.49 million. That is where most Williamson County sellers actually live. Our comparison of new construction versus resale explains what that means for a resale seller.
Under $500,000 is taking the hardest hit
The entry level of this county has been struggling, and a lot of that is attached properties. Condos and townhomes are sitting. Months of supply under $500,000 is 4.00, higher than the $500,000s at 2.76 and the $600,000s at 3.26.
That is an inversion. The conventional expectation is that supply loosens as price rises. In Williamson County it does the opposite at that seam, which is one of the quieter facts about the Williamson County market slowing down this season.
What the Williamson County Market Slowing Down Means for You
If You Are Selling
The Williamson County market slowing down means no price range is carrying sellers right now, so pricing and preparation carry more weight than they did in the spring. With inventory at a five year high and buyer traffic down in most ranges, the first 30 days matter more than ever. See how the Turner Victory Team approaches pricing and our guide to knowing if your home is priced right.
If You Are Buying
The Williamson County market slowing down is not a crash. It is opportunity. Plenty of Williamson County owners hold real equity, so the question is not whether they can offer an incentive, it is whether they want to. More are getting to yes. See how the Turner Victory Team guides buyers.
The other thing worth watching is what the Williamson County market slowing down does next. Showings lead contracts by roughly two to three weeks, and pendings have been flat right around 102 for six straight weeks. That flatness is what you would expect just before contracts start to move. If you are weighing a decision in Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville, or Spring Hill, the next three weeks will tell you a lot.
For a look at how a neighboring market is behaving very differently right now, our companion report on showings per listing in Rutherford County found the opposite pattern, with entry level activity rising while the middle of that market cooled.
Market Analysis by John Turner, Creator of Tru Insights.
Wondering Where Your Price Range Actually Stands?
The Turner Victory Team will pull the Tru Insights numbers for your specific price range and city and walk you through them. No pressure. Just the numbers.
Reach OutIs the Williamson County real estate market slowing down? That is a question I get asked a lot, and we are going to dig into it a little and look at some leading indicators of what we are seeing.
I am John Turner, team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate. Every week we bring you the Williamson County Real Estate Report, and I think we have some really good information this week, not only about what has happened and what is going on, but also a couple of leading indicators as to what may be happening coming up shortly.
One of the things we have really been trying to pay attention to lately is the number of showings a home on the market gets, because that is a leading indicator in this market. Most people are not buying a home sight unseen. They have to go look at it. Whenever showings are up, it generally means sales will be up. When showings are down, it generally means sales will be down. So that is something we look at, and this week we actually have a couple of new charts I am really excited about.
First of all, this is our showings per listing chart. We have had this, and you have seen it if you have tuned in to us at all. You can see we peaked back up here at the 13th week of the year, so that is around the first of April, and then it started dropping down. Right now we are basically at one showing per listing per week in Williamson County.
The other thing we did is add this mean line. One is the median and one is the mean, and basically it just lets us know whether the rest of the county is going along with the average or whether we are seeing some deviation from it. We are not seeing any deviation.
One of our new charts here goes back four weeks, to where we had the information from four weeks ago, looking at the average number of showings and comparing it to what we saw this week. So basically a month back until now. If you look at under $500,000, there were about 1.54 showings per listing. Now you are at 1.43, so you can see that has dropped off. It has dropped off in every single one of these until you get above $2 million. Now, that is comparing one point in time to this point in time.
So the other thing we want to do is take a four week trend. Our four week trend actually shows the same thing, except in the five to six hundred thousands. We are seeing a slight gain there. There has been a slight pickup in showings at that price point. Everything else has dropped off, and the biggest loser right now is the million to the million and a half price point. So that is what we are seeing with the showings.
What that tells us is that we expect sales to drop off, which you would think this time of year they would anyway. But it seems like we are seeing a little bit more of a drop off than what we traditionally see from a seasonal standpoint.
The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score is at 40. We call it a balanced market, but it is really leaning toward buyers. I will say it is leaning as far as it can and still be considered balanced. Once you hit 39 we start calling that a buyer’s market, so we are right there on the cusp.
If you are a buyer looking to buy a home in Williamson County, there are opportunities out there, and I think you are going to see more opportunities coming up. Market crash? No, we are not seeing that. But some opportunities. We have sellers who are tired of being on the market. A lot of people have equity in their homes right now, so it is not a matter of whether they can give some incentives. It is a matter of whether they want to. I think there are sellers out there who want to sell, so I do think there are some good opportunities.
There are 1,777 listings in Williamson County right now. That is a 3.93 month supply, and the 30 year fixed rate mortgage is at 6.66%. So you can see that 1,777 homes on the market, and 28.8% of those are new construction.
There were 139 homes listed this week. Forty five percent of those were new construction. A hundred and two homes went under contract, and conversely only 21% of those were new construction. So twice as many new construction homes are getting listed as what we saw going under contract this week.
We have talked about this before, but under $500,000 is just being kind of hammered right now. A lot of that has to do with the attached properties, the condos, the town homes. We have a lot of those sitting on the market right now. Anything in green here is still considered a sellers market. So things are still moving in the green, but looking at the showings and looking at the inventory rising, we can tell that things are slowing down a little bit. So I expect some of these to start rising as well unless something unexpected happens with the market.
Where we look at our weekly charts, our active inventory is up to 1,777. It is the highest we have seen in probably maybe ever, at least the past five years. It is the highest number of homes on the market in Williamson County that we have seen. Now, you do have to think about per capita. As much as Williamson County has grown, just because there are more homes on the market does not mean per person, per household, there are more homes on the market. That is a whole different breakdown that we look at sometimes as well.
On months supply, you can see this start deviating more from last year. We were kind of following it pretty closely, but we are starting to see more of a separation here, which just tells me we have more homes sitting right now, more inventory than we had last year, especially compared to the number of homes that are going under contract.
Because if you look at the new listings, seven of the past eight weeks new listings have been below where they have been the past couple of years, and they are way below what they were last year. Now, this is not new construction, this is homes coming on the market. So there is a huge gap there.
You would think active inventory would be dropping off some, but the reason it is not is that our pendings still have not broken out. Earlier this year we were breaking out over what we had done last year for several weeks. We have been trailing from a pending standpoint what we saw last year. A couple weeks ago we did have a couple of decent weeks where we exceeded last year, but we also had a big drop last year on the same week, so you cannot take that into consideration.
So because homes are not going under contract as quickly, even though fewer homes are coming on the market, we are still seeing a build up of inventory. Right now there are 618 homes in Williamson County that have been on the market at least 90 days. That is almost 35% of all homes on the market that have been on the market for over 90 days.
The Market Health Score we talked about a little earlier, but buyers, look at this. It has been trending down. So the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score is going down. It keeps moving toward the buyers, more in your favor. So if you have been waiting to buy in Williamson County, you should be looking at some opportunities there, because I do think we have more homes that are sitting and people have equity in them. So I do think that very possibly you can find a decent deal out there.
The interesting thing is that sometimes we see pockets in the market that are bucking the trend. But right now in Williamson County we are not. We are kind of seeing this all across the Williamson County market.
So I think that is pretty much everything we wanted to cover this week. I am John Turner, the Team Leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate, and we do bring this Williamson County Real Estate Report to you every week.
Questions About the Williamson County Market Slowing Down
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