Williamson County Home Inventory Is Upside Down. Here Is What That Costs You.

If I asked you to guess where the majority of homes in Williamson County are priced, you would probably say somewhere in the middle. You know what? You would be wrong. I am John Turner, team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate. We bring you the Williamson County Real Estate Report every week.

Let us talk about that pricing and where the homes are. Listen to this. Only 195 homes in the entire county are listed under $500,000. There are 220 homes right now listed above the three million dollar mark. So definitely not in the middle.

Let us jump over to a chart, because this one is very interesting. We have kind of got an upside down shelf, because only 21 percent of the inventory right now is under $700,000. Normally you think of inventory as a pyramid. You have more on the bottom, and as you get to the top it gets smaller. Williamson County is an anomaly, and we know that. The whole real estate market in Williamson County is different than anything else.

If you look at $700,000 to basically one and a half million, that is where the bulk of your inventory is going to be. There is 41 percent of the inventory there. But once you start looking above one and a half million, 37 percent of the inventory sits above one and a half million.

Now the interesting thing is if you look at the actives right now, under $700,000 there are 376 homes for sale. Above one and a half million, there are 660. If you look at closed, the closed amounts in each one of those price ranges over the past six months are about the same. But your inventory is nearly double in the upper price point. So if you are selling in the upper price points, you have got to know that you have a lot more competition there.

The other thing that is really interesting in Williamson County, we just noticed something. It looks like it has flipped a little bit. It is interesting to see the gray, which is last year, versus the blue, which is this year. This is how long it has taken to get under contract. This is going from listing to contract, and not only comparing the months to each other, but what I am really looking at is the blue. In January that number was 79 days from list to contract. In February it dropped to 61, then 65, then 51, 60, 52, 52.

So we really have seen a market here recently in Williamson County where the velocity, how quickly homes are going under contract, has picked up over the past few months. Will that continue? I really do not know, but it is something we are definitely going to keep our eye on.

Right now the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score for Williamson County sits at 43. That means it is leaning a little bit toward buyers. Earlier this year we were leaning toward sellers. Now we are leaning a little toward buyers, but still a very balanced market in Williamson County. We have 1,766 homes on the market, just short of a four month supply of inventory, and the 30 year mortgage rate is at 6.67 percent.

Let us look at a breakdown of that inventory. About 28 percent of all active listings are new construction. The interesting thing is out of 120 homes that came on the market this week, half of those were new construction. So the builders brought on a lot of inventory this week. But when you look at our pending sales, 91 went under contract this week, and only 14 percent of those were new construction. We are still in a healthy market. As we talked about, 2,671 homes have closed in the past six months in Williamson County.

Now let us look at our inventory levels, because this is something we have really been keeping an eye on. Our inventory has grown and we expect it to. But if we were following past years, we would probably start seeing a drop off right now. We have not seen that. The 1,766 homes on the market right now is almost the highest we have seen. Three of the past four weeks it has been at the highest of the year. If that trend follows past years, we should see a downturn here in the next couple of weeks, and that should continue through the fall.

On months of supply, I am seeing a little bit of a gap grow over last year. Some of this has to do with last year dropping down more, because if you look at this year we are really kind of flat through here. But it is interesting to see that gap. It is like what we saw a little bit in the spring as well. Nothing I am really concerned with, except once we start hitting four months supply we do feel more of a balanced market than a seller’s market. The higher that number goes, the more it favors buyers and the less it favors sellers.

New listings. Our new listing counts are down, especially if we compare to last year. Look at these. Four, six, seven weeks, and look how much we have dropped off. So that is going to be something to watch. Are we going to see inventory tighten up, because these numbers definitely are different than what we saw last year. Even when we go back two years and look at it, we are trailing five out of the past six weeks, quite a bit below 2024.

We really want to keep an eye on that, because if inventory tightens, that actually puts upward pressure on prices, since there is less for buyers to choose from. Tightening of inventory is good for sellers because there is less competition, and it helps push prices up. It is not good for buyers because there are fewer homes to choose from.

On weekly pendings, we are still trucking along. We did drop off this week, but did not drop nearly as much as we dropped this time last year. Will we get the bounce back over the next couple of weeks like we did last year? We will definitely keep an eye on that. But what I want to show you is that once we get past this little blip, basically the end of August, traditionally pendings drop off. That happens almost every year. 2024 was a little different. There was a drop off but not nearly as much as you would expect. In 2023 there definitely was a drop off as well. So we would expect our pending home sales to start dropping off in the next two or three weeks.

The average price per square foot on this chart goes back to 2023. January 2023 is about $297 a square foot. Right now it is at $364 a square foot. These jump quite a bit from month to month, so it is not so much the exact price per square foot, but the trend in Williamson County. You can see how it has really taken off, up about $80 a square foot more than it was just three years ago.

The other thing we like to look at is showings. Right now this is by price point. If you are $700,000 and below, you are probably getting one and a half to two showings per week. As you get to the higher price points, that drops off. The definite trend across all price ranges is that we continue to drop off. This is the trend you would expect to see, where in the late spring we start to pick up a little with showings and then start dropping off. We have had a pretty steep drop right here though. I would love to see it be a little more gradual. That also probably corresponds a little with mortgage rates, because as mortgage rates have gone up, it has affected buyers’ buying power as well.

So that is the information we have for you this week on the Williamson County Real Estate Report. Just to recap. Inventory is top heavy right now. Our showings have slowed down. And we are watching the number of listings coming on the market, because we want to see whether that is going to tighten inventory or not. If you have any specific questions, please comment below and ask. We will be more than happy to try to answer them on our next session. We appreciate you tuning in. Until next week, I hope you make it a great week and we will see you then.