The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score Just Hit 41. Here Is What That Means.

Most market reports hand you one number and call it a day. Months of supply. Median price. Days on market. Each of those tells you something, and each of them tells you that something late. The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score exists because we got tired of watching a market turn six weeks before the standard numbers admitted it.

This week the score is 41. That is the lowest reading we have posted this year, and it is the fourth straight week it has moved down.

The Turner Victory Team tracks Rutherford County every week using live Realtracs MLS data through our Tru Insights™ platform. This report covers the week ending July 25, 2026, and serves Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Eagleville, Lascassas, Rockvale, and Christiana.

What the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score Actually Measures

The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score is a single number from 0 to 100 that answers one question: who has the advantage in this market right now, the buyer or the seller?

Fifty is dead center. A Turner Victory Team Market Health Score of exactly 50 means neither side has leverage. Above 50 the advantage moves to sellers. Below 50 it moves to buyers. The further from 50, the stronger the tilt.

What goes into it is the part that matters. Rather than leaning on one metric, the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score weighs a set of components together, including active inventory, the pace of new listings, contract activity, showing traffic per listing, how fast homes are going under contract, price reduction behavior, and current mortgage rates. Each one carries a weight. The output is one number you can track week to week.

Why the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score Moves Before Months of Supply

Here is the practical argument for watching this number instead of the standard ones.

Months of supply is a lagging measure by construction. It divides current inventory by the recent pace of closings. Closings are the last event in a transaction. A home that closed this week went under contract 30 to 60 days ago, which means today’s months of supply is describing a market that existed two months back.

The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score pulls from leading signals instead. Showings happen before contracts. Contracts happen before closings. New listing flow changes before inventory levels change. By weighting those earlier signals, the score turns before supply does.

This week is a clean illustration. Months of supply sits at 3.54, which by the traditional rule of thumb reads as a healthy seller-leaning market. But the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score is at 41, well into buyer territory. The two numbers disagree, and the score is the one describing right now.

Four of five components are working against sellers. Only the new listing slowdown is pushing back. That mix is what produces a 41.

Why the Score Slid From Above 50 to 41

A few weeks ago the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score was sitting slightly above 50, which is balanced leaning seller. Three things moved it.

Showing traffic fell by nearly half

Showings per active listing peaked at 2.38 per week during the spring and now sit at 1.35. Traffic is also uneven. Homes between $300,000 and $400,000 still average about 2.75 showings a week. Homes between $500,000 and $600,000 average just over half a showing a week. Showings are the earliest demand signal we track, which is why they move the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score faster than almost anything else.

Contracts slowed

The Turner Victory Team recorded 76 Rutherford County homes going under contract during the week ending July 25, 2026, compared to 124 in the same week of 2025. Contract pace is the second earliest signal in the model.

Buying power shrank

The 30 year fixed rate moved from 5.98% on February 26 to 6.58% this week, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. That is about 6% less house for the same payment. We covered the math in detail in Murfreesboro home buying power.

None of those three would have moved the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score much on its own. Together they took nine points off in a matter of weeks.

What a Turner Victory Team Market Health Score of 41 Means If You Are Selling

It does not mean your home will not sell. It means the market has less patience with a wrong price than it did in April.

Look at what the Turner Victory Team found on Rutherford County homes priced between $400,000 and $500,000. Homes that went under contract within the first seven days closed at about 99.5% of their Tru Original List Price™. Homes that took 8 to 89 days closed at about 96.5%. Homes that went past 90 days closed at about 93.5%. Nearly one in three homes that go under contract do so in that first week.

That distribution does not change much when the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score is 55. What changes is how many buyers are circulating to reward a correct price. At 41, with showings at 1.35 per listing per week, you get fewer chances to make a first impression, so the first impression carries more weight.

One more piece of competition worth knowing. New construction makes up 35% of active Rutherford County inventory. One of every three homes a buyer walks into is a builder home, complete with model home presentation and incentives a resale seller usually cannot match. That factors into the score and it should factor into how you prepare. If you want help thinking through it, see how the Turner Victory Team approaches pricing.

What a Score of 41 Means If You Are Buying

It means you have leverage you did not have in the spring, and it is not evenly distributed.

The Turner Victory Team counted 1,669 active listings this week, more than 500 above the same week in 2024. Showing traffic is thin, which means less competition at any given house. Sellers who have been sitting are getting more realistic each week.

But the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score is a countywide number and your bracket may not match it. Below $400,000 Rutherford County still carries less than two and a half months of supply, which is seller territory regardless of what the countywide score says. From $500,000 to $1.5 million the market is balanced with several brackets edging toward buyer conditions. That is where a 41 actually shows up. Our breakdown of months of supply in Rutherford County covers the bracket splits.

What Would Push the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score Back Up

Two things, and one of them is already in motion.

New listings have been slowing for several weeks, coming in at 122 this week. If sellers keep pulling back while contracts hold, inventory stops building and the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score stabilizes on its own. That is the quiet correction happening underneath the headline.

The bigger lever is rates. Rutherford County has seen this before. A couple of years ago the market jumped in October and November, which is not the seasonal pattern, after rates dropped roughly half a point to three quarters of a point. A move like that would lift buying power, pull buyers off the sidelines, and move the score faster than anything a seller can control.

What will not move it is the calendar. School starts in early August and Rutherford County activity has traditionally cooled from there into the fall. Expect the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score to stay in the low 40s through August unless rates change the math.

Whether you are buying, selling, or moving to Murfreesboro, the number that matters is the one for your price range, not the countywide headline. If you want to know where your specific bracket stands, our team will pull it for you. You can also watch the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score update every week on the live Rutherford County market data page.

Market Analysis by John Turner, Creator of Tru Insights.