Selling a Home in Williamson County: Where Your Odds Are Best
Selling a home in Williamson County comes down to a 56% proposition countywide. Turner Victory Team data shows 56.0% of existing homes went under contract within 90 days of first coming on the market, measured across 1,369 homes that listed between November 2025 and April 2026.
The spread by city is wide. Thompsons Station leads at 62.7% and College Grove trails at 40.9%, a gap of nearly 22 points. Selling a home in Williamson County depends far more on where you are than most sellers expect.
Selling a home in Williamson County is not one market. It is eight, and the difference between the best city and the weakest is bigger than most homeowners would guess.
The Turner Victory Team measured what selling a home in Williamson County actually looks like across 1,369 existing homes that came on the market, tracking how many found a buyer within 90 days. Countywide the answer is 56.0%. But that county number hides a spread of almost 22 points between Thompsons Station at the top and College Grove at the bottom.
Every week the Turner Victory Team tracks Williamson County market conditions through live Realtracs MLS data and our Tru Insights™ platform. This report covers the week ending August 1, 2026, and serves Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville, Spring Hill, Thompsons Station, College Grove, Arrington, and Fairview. For the full charts, visit the Williamson County market update page or the interactive market charts.
How the Odds of Selling a Home in Williamson County Were Measured
Before the numbers, the method matters. Selling a home in Williamson County gets measured a dozen different ways, and most of them flatter the market.
The Turner Victory Team measured every existing home that first came on the market between November 2025 and April 2026. Each home got a full 90 days. The question was whether it went under contract inside that window and eventually closed.
The denominator is every home that listed
Not just the ones that sold. Selling a home in Williamson County either works or it does not, and both outcomes belong in the math. When a report says homes are moving in 30 days, that figure comes only from the winners. Every home that expired, cancelled, or is still sitting gets left out. A seller weighing whether to list needs the number that includes the misses.
The clock starts the first day the home ever listed
Not the most recent listing. Selling a home in Williamson County on the second attempt does not earn a fresh start in this measurement. Turner Victory Team Tru Days on Market™ counts days from previous listings at the same address, so a home that came off the market and went back on does not reset its clock. A home that sat 60 days, expired, relisted, and went under contract 40 days later did not sell in 40 days. It took 100.
New construction is excluded
This one matters more in Williamson County than almost anywhere. Builders here often sign a contract before the house exists, then take six months or longer to build. Including that inventory would badly distort what selling a home in Williamson County looks like for an ordinary homeowner.
Selling a Home in Williamson County: The Odds by City
Here is what the Turner Victory Team found. Existing homes only, each given a full 90 days.
| City | Homes Measured | Under Contract in 90 Days | Versus County |
|---|---|---|---|
| Thompsons Station | 118 | 62.7% | Above |
| Spring Hill | 133 | 58.6% | Above |
| Franklin | 634 | 57.7% | Above |
| Brentwood | 238 | 56.3% | Above |
| Arrington | 21 | 52.4% | Below |
| Nolensville | 107 | 46.7% | Below |
| Fairview | 57 | 43.9% | Below |
| College Grove | 44 | 40.9% | Below |
Franklin dominates the volume side of selling a home in Williamson County, with 634 existing homes measured, roughly half the county, and it still lands above the county average at 57.7%. That combination is unusual. In most markets the busiest area is simply the biggest, not the best.
Arrington shows 52.4%, but that rests on only 21 existing homes. Too small a group to draw a conclusion from, and the Turner Victory Team flags it rather than letting it read as a trend. College Grove at 44 homes and Fairview at 57 are also on the smaller side, so treat those as directional.
Why the Spread Is So Wide
Price is the biggest driver behind selling a home in Williamson County. The U.S. Census Bureau ranks Williamson among the highest income counties in the nation, and the county spans a wider range than almost any county in Middle Tennessee, from Spring Hill homes under $500,000 to College Grove estates well past $3 million. Higher price points mean smaller buyer pools, and smaller buyer pools mean longer timelines.
College Grove averages a list price above $3.6 million on active inventory. Spring Hill averages under $700,000. Selling a home in Williamson County means something completely different in those two places. Those two cities are not really competing for the same buyer, and the odds reflect that.
Selling a home in Williamson County at the entry level is a fundamentally different exercise than selling at the top. The county average of 56.0% is useful as a benchmark, but no individual seller lives at the county average.
Half as Many Sellers Came to Market This Week
The second story this week is supply, and it changes the math on selling a home in Williamson County right now.
Williamson County saw 123 new listings for the week ending August 1, 2026. The same week last year saw 241. That is a drop of nearly half, and it is the biggest year over year change anywhere in this week’s numbers.
Monthly figures tell the same story for anyone selling a home in Williamson County. New listings ran 1,009 in April, 938 in May, 886 in June, and roughly 746 in July. The slide has been steady since spring.
Some of this is seasonal, and selling a home in Williamson County always gets quieter this time of year. New listing volume always falls in August as families finish summer moves before school starts. But not by half.
For anyone already on the market, this matters. Active inventory still sits at 1,706 homes, so there is competition out there. The difference is that almost nothing new is arriving each week to compete with you. Selling a home in Williamson County right now means facing a thinner stream of fresh listings than at any point this year.
Speed and Price When Selling a Home in Williamson County
Speed is where selling a home in Williamson County turns into dollars. The Turner Victory Team tracked 4,964 Williamson County closings over the last 12 months and sorted them by how long each home sat before going under contract.
| Time on Market | Share of All Closings | Percent of Tru Original List Price |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 7 days | 35.4% | 99.8% |
| 8 to 30 days | 20.1% | 100.8% |
| 31 to 60 days | 14.8% | 95.3% |
| 61 to 90 days | 9.6% | 93.1% |
| 91 to 180 days | 13.0% | 91.6% |
| Over 180 days | 7.0% | 88.7% |
More than half of all Williamson County homes that sold, 55.5%, went under contract within the first 30 days. Homes that found a buyer in the first week received 99.8% of their Turner Victory Team Tru Original List Price™, which is the first price the home was ever offered at, before any reductions.
The 8 to 30 day group is worth a note for anyone selling a home in Williamson County. Those homes averaged 100.8%, slightly above their original asking price. That is what a bidding war looks like on a home priced correctly. It is not a data error, and it does not happen often, but it happens.
After the first month, selling a home in Williamson County goes one direction only. By 91 to 180 days the figure is 91.6%, and past 180 days it is 88.7%. On a home first listed at $1,100,000, the gap between selling in week one and selling past 180 days is roughly $122,000.
How This Week Affects Selling a Home in Williamson County
The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score™ for Williamson County sits at 45 for the week ending August 1, 2026, which reads as a balanced market sitting right at the edge of a buyer lean.
Active listings dropped from 1,770 the week before, which the Turner Victory Team expects is the inventory peak for the year based on the pattern of the last three years. Months of supply landed at 3.92, compared to about 3.5 at this time last year.
Showings are the leading indicator worth watching for anyone selling a home in Williamson County. They peaked near 2.76 per listing per week earlier this year and now sit at 1.32, roughly half. Showings come before contracts, so a sustained decline there usually shows up in pending sales a few weeks later.
The 30 year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.66%, slightly lower than the 6.72% of a year ago. The number that changed is the low of 5.97% in early March. Freddie Mac publishes the weekly national average. At Williamson County price points, that 0.69 point climb translates to roughly $280 a month on a $700,000 purchase with 10% down. Anyone buying a home in Middle Tennessee is feeling that shift.
What Selling a Home in Williamson County Means for You
If You Are Selling
Selling a home in Williamson County starts with knowing your city’s baseline, not the county average. Then it comes down to the first 30 days, where more than half of all sales happen and where the price you receive is highest. Fewer new listings arriving each week is quietly working in your favor. See how the Turner Victory Team approaches pricing.
If You Are Buying
Selling a home in Williamson County fails about 44% of the time inside 90 days, and those homes are where negotiating room lives. The cities with lower odds also carry higher price points, so leverage concentrates at the top of the market. See how the Turner Victory Team guides buyers.
Whether you are buying, selling, or relocating to Middle Tennessee, the numbers move every week and your city and price range change the whole picture. If you are weighing a move in Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville, or Spring Hill, the smartest step is knowing where you stand before the sign goes in the yard. For a related look at the upper end, our post on why some Williamson County homes sit is a good next read.
Market Analysis by John Turner, Creator of Tru Insights.
If you are a seller in Williamson County, do you know where your best odds are? What city gives you the best odds of selling your home within 90 days? I am John Turner, team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate, and this is your Williamson County Real Estate Report.
The first thing this week is that we are going to show you, city by city, what your odds are of selling a home in Williamson County within 90 days. Spoiler alert, 56% of homes in Williamson County right now go under contract within the first 90 days.
The second thing you need to know is that half as many sellers came into the market this week as the same week last year. We will look at that in a moment.
The third thing is mortgage rates. I generally do not talk about them a lot, because the market is the market, but rates do affect it. Rates right now are actually lower than they were this time last year. A lot of people forget that. But they are about three quarters of a percent higher than they were back in February. We all have short memories, and affordability is really what is coming into play with some of what we are seeing.
Right now the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score for Williamson County is at 45. That means a balanced market, but leaning slightly toward buyers. Once we get below 45 we really look at it as leaning toward buyers, so we are teetering right between balanced and a buyer lean.
We have 1,706 homes on the market right now and 3.92 months supply of inventory, which means if nothing new came on the market and demand stayed the same, it would take nearly four months to work through all the inventory. The current 30 year fixed mortgage rate is 6.66%.
The light blue on the chart is new construction. Of the 1,706 homes on the market, 25% is new construction. Of the homes that came on the market this week, 43% were new construction. We have sold 2,612 homes in the past six months. Look at all the green below $1.5 million. Anything in green is technically a seller’s market, yellow is balanced, and anything in red is a buyer’s market.
Active inventory dropped from 1,770 last week to 1,706 this week. This is a trend we usually see for this week. It has done that the past three years, so this is our fourth year. We usually see a little recovery and then it tails off for the rest of the year. I am assuming 1,770 will be the height of active inventory for the year. If we surpass that, we will start really gauging what is going on, because it would be an anomaly.
Months of supply is higher than last year, not by a lot, but by about half a month. New listings have been trailing for the past five weeks, and really you can go back further than that. That has been a thing this year. We have not had as many homes come on the market, and that has kept our inventory levels lower than they could be. If we had the same amount of homes coming on as we traditionally have, we would really be getting some downward pressure on prices.
Looking at weekly pendings, we are roughly in line with last year except for one drop. Technically it is only 12 units, but we have had two of the last three weeks down. What I think we are seeing is demand softening a little. It is not obvious yet, but it is something to watch over the next two or three weeks.
Showings are our leading indicator. By price range, pretty much anything in Williamson County until you get above $1.5 million is getting somewhere between one and about 1.8 showings per listing per week. But look at it as a whole. We topped out at 2.76 showings per week and we are now down to 1.32. That is almost half of where we were at our peak. You have to have showings before you have pendings, so as that drops I am anticipating our pendings will continue to slide a little. Some of that is seasonal and some has to do with mortgage rates.
If you are a seller, look at the past 12 months. 35% of the homes that sold in Williamson County sold in the first seven days, and they sold at nearly 100% of asking price. Another 20% sold in days 8 to 30, and that group actually came in slightly above asking price. There may have been multiple offer situations in there, or cases where sellers were paying closing costs. But look at the drop off once you get past 30 days. It really falls. You definitely do not want to go past 90 days, but it is preferred that you do not go past 30 days if you want to maximize the offers you get.
Now, what are your odds of selling a home in Williamson County broken down by city? We have pulled out all the new construction, so this is only resale homes. We are looking at when a home came on the market and whether it went under contract in 90 days or less. In Thompsons Station, over 62% of the homes went under contract in 90 days or less. Spring Hill drops off a little, then Franklin and Brentwood, and then you get into some of the outlying areas like Arrington, Fairview, and College Grove.
Nolensville is interesting too. I would have thought Nolensville would be a little higher, but we are seeing some softening there. Out of the notable cities, it is definitely lower.
We have all sorts of data and we are not going to get into all of it today. I enjoy looking at this data. I spent this weekend more hours than I needed to evaluating it and trying to better understand the market we are in. I hope you are enjoying it too, and that we are bringing information that helps you understand the market, whether you are looking to buy in Williamson County, looking to sell, or just curious.
We do use this data to help our buyers and sellers better understand the market, because we figure if you understand the market better, you are going to make better decisions. If you need help with real estate, please reach out to me or one of my team members. Until next week, make it a great week.
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