Sell Now or Wait in Murfreesboro? What This Fall’s Data Says

Welcome to the Murfreesboro Real Estate Report. This week we are looking to answer three questions for you. If you are interested in the real estate market here in Rutherford County, which includes Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Eagleville, and all points in between, these are the questions we are going to answer, because we are hearing them from our clients.

The first question is: if I am looking to sell my house, should I sell now or should I wait until spring? Question number two, a lot of buyers are asking us, is this a good time to buy or should I hold off? And the third thing we are going to try to answer today, and probably the more difficult of the three, is where is the market heading this fall? We will look at all the data we have and try to put a little bit of a prediction on what we think may happen. I will go ahead and put the disclaimer out there that any little thing with our economy can totally change any of those predictions, so always take them with a grain of salt.

I am John Turner, team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate. We bring you the Murfreesboro Real Estate Report every week and we appreciate you tuning in. Our viewership continues to grow, especially in a market that has been a little tough right now. So if you have not done it, subscribe below so you will not miss our reports. It also helps us on the different social media platforms and with the way people can find us. If you have any questions or comments, please put those below too.

I want to start with our charts before we answer those questions, because our charts will actually lead us into some of the answers. The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score for Rutherford County is 41. That means we are still technically in a balanced market, but it is really leaning toward buyers. Our calculation has not put us into a buyer’s market yet. I think a lot of people would look at it and say we are in a buyer’s market. We just calculate ours a little differently. No matter which way you look at it, right now in Rutherford County buyers are gaining more and more leverage in this market.

Currently we have 1,738 homes for sale in Rutherford County, almost a 3.6 month supply. As of Thursday, when the weekly rate comes out, the 30 year rate was 7.03%. It is probably slightly higher than that based on what happened in the market on Friday.

Let’s look at what happened in Rutherford County over the past week. Remember that the light blue column is new construction, as a percentage of whatever data point we are looking at. Right now there are 1,738 homes on the market, and exactly one third of those are new construction. 125 new listings hit the market this week, and 43% of those were new construction. 88 homes went under contract this week. That is not something we hear a lot about, because many sellers right now are telling us their home is sitting and nothing is happening. But 88 homes did go under contract this week in Rutherford County. 86 closed, and 79 came off the market, which means the sellers either got frustrated and pulled the house, or they pulled it to reevaluate their strategy and will probably come back on the market.

Below $500,000 is still in the green for months of supply, which means less than four months of supply, and $800,000 to $1 million is in that same boat. From $500,000 to $800,000 you are looking at more than four months of supply. And once you get above $1 million, you are looking at more than half a year of supply.

On our historical charts, first look at active inventory. Normally at this point we start to see it go over the top and drop off a little as we head into fall. That is not the case this year. We have hit the most homes we have had on the market in at least four years, and I would submit to you it may be the most we have ever had in Rutherford County. I have not gone back and pulled every data point over the years, but with the growth of Rutherford County, even in 2008 and 2009 when the market was slow during the Great Recession, we did not have nearly the population we have now. So I would not be surprised if this is the highest number we have seen.

On months of supply, last year was pretty much leveling off at this point. That is the green line. This year’s orange line continues to grow a little, and we are starting to see more separation from where we were this time last year. Go back a couple of years and we had about 2.3 months of supply. Right now we are at 3.59, so well over a month more supply than we had in 2024.

Our pendings have been trailing last year. We did have three recent weeks where they were up a little. If you go back to what we told you about July and August, pendings were way down compared to last year, and here in September we actually had three weeks where they picked up, which is good. This past week was down. Even so, 88 homes went under contract, compared with 117 at this point last year. When you look at the totality of it, it is allowing our active inventory to continue to rise.

I want to get into showings, because people ask about this quite a bit. You can see where showings peaked in late spring, and they have continued to drop. This is showings per listing per week. Right now it is about 0.6, so basically half a showing per week for each listing. From a showing standpoint, the market is slow. We have gone back and looked at some historical data, and it is slow from that standpoint as well.

The interesting thing is that when we look at the historical pendings and sales, they are not down as much, percentage wise, as showings are. So one of two things is happening, and we are really trying to figure this out. Sometimes the data will not show us, because the systems do not let us see how many showings a particular house got. That information belongs to the listing agent and listing company. But basically it looks like either a few homes that are priced right and presented right are getting most of the showings in their first week or so, or buyers are being so much more selective online that they are ruling out houses and never setting up appointments.

I would caution you as a seller: if you are not getting showings, it means you are being eliminated online. It may not mean your house is bad. It could be the location, it could be the school zone, or buyers may not think your pricing is on target compared to what they are looking for. Buyers right now are looking for a deal. If they do not think your house is a deal, or if you are still comparing your house to something that sold back in the spring, you are probably not getting many showings right now.

Think about it this way. If one house comes on the market and gets five showings its first weekend, and the average across the board is half a showing per week, that one house got enough showings for basically ten houses. You can have one house get five showings and nine more houses get none, and your average is half a showing per week. Based on what I know about this market, I feel like we are seeing a lot of that.

We also look at showings per listing by price range. We take a snapshot from four weeks ago and compare it to this week. The dark blue is this week and the gray is four weeks ago. In almost every category you are getting fewer showings than you were four weeks ago. The $500,000s are basically even. We also look at a four week trend to see momentum. Under $300,000, the trend is picking up a little. Every other price range except the $500,000s is trending down, and the $300,000s have slowed down quite a bit in that time frame.

So, question one: should I sell now, or should I wait until spring? That is a question we get a lot. Here is some historical data. Last year we had about 1,600 homes on the market in September, and by January it dropped to about 1,300. So we saw about a 19% drop in inventory from September to January. The conventional wisdom is, I would rather compete against 1,300 homes than 1,600 homes. But you have to think about buyer activity, because months of supply only fell about 11%. Buyers leave the market as well. So in January you will more than likely compete against fewer sellers, but you are probably also competing for fewer buyers. There are generally more people buying this time of year than in January. January normally runs about 33% lower on closings than an average month.

I have always said that if you need to move, you need to move. There is no sense trying to time the market if you have a job relocation, if you are trying to get closer to loved ones, or whatever the reason. Then let’s get your house on the market and try to get it sold. Let’s look at what is going on with the market and price and present accordingly so we can beat out the other houses, because it is a competition, and we have been stressing that a lot. You are competing not only for buyers, but against the other houses on the market in your price range and your area.

And I would submit to you that your area keeps growing, because in Rutherford County school zones matter, but probably not as much as some people think, because we actually have a really good school system. One buyer may prefer one school zone and another buyer may prefer a different one. We are very fortunate in Rutherford County to have a strong school system across the board.

So here is the deal. It is okay to put your house on the market, and it is okay to wait. There is no way I can predict what mortgage rates will be doing in January. I think we are at a point where rates will probably continue to rise a little. I heard a lender this weekend say they thought rates could go above 8%. I do not know, there is so much going on right now, but I can tell you the trends are not great for mortgage rates, and that affects a buyer’s purchasing power. When you are selling a house, you have to think about the buyer’s purchasing power and who can actually buy your house. That same buyer can afford much less than they could back in April or May, when rates were quite a bit lower. So should you sell now or wait until spring? I will give you the answer I always give: homes are selling now, and I am sure they will be selling in the spring. It really depends on your goals.

Now let’s flip to the other side. Buyers are asking me, is it a good time to buy? Buyers have a lot of leverage right now, more than you have had in years. I was talking with some buyers this past week, and my one caution was that if you are only looking to stay a couple of years, I have some concerns, because I do not know what prices are going to do. They may go up a little, and they may go down some. You should never invest in real estate short term unless you are a professional, you know what you are doing, and you are willing to take a loss. You buy a house because it is a home and you want to live in it.

If you are looking long term, I think you are going to be fine. Traditionally, homes in this area have appreciated close to 5% a year over the long run. That does not mean we did not have years where home values dropped, or years where they only went up 1%. But over any five or ten year period, I think your home is going to be worth more than it is now. If you are waiting on lower mortgage rates to purchase, and you can afford it now and it fits your budget, I might go ahead and buy, because you have some negotiating power right now.

With that said, since July, 90 resale homes went under contract in their first week on the market. When that happens, those sellers are not cutting their prices. They do not feel the need to. There are still some multiple offer situations. We were in one this weekend. So when a home hits the market priced correctly and presented correctly, it is still getting attention. From a buyer standpoint, you cannot necessarily call your shot on those homes. But if a home has been sitting on the market for a while, there is certainly opportunity there for you. If I were looking long term, I would not have a problem buying in this environment, and I would hope rates come down at some point so I could refinance. And if you are paying cash, this is a great time to buy right now.

I will tell you this, and it does drive me crazy. My fellow Realtors, I am talking to you. When you throw out there that now is a great time to buy and you can call your shot, I understand what you are trying to say, because buyers do have more negotiating power. But affordability is much tougher because of where mortgage rates are. They were over 1% lower back in February. We cannot go back in time. Rates may come down at some point, and I think they will. But the best time to buy is when you are ready. If you are looking long term, I would have no problem buying right now. If you are looking short term, I do not know that I would ever buy real estate short term unless I were a flipper. It is an investment, and investments take time.

As Realtors we sometimes get hung up on the dollars and forget about the emotional part: you want a home, something you own, you want to build equity and long term stability, you want a yard for your dog, and you want a location that fits your life. All of those things come into play. It is not just whether the house will go up or down in value over the next couple of years.

Question number three: where is the market heading this fall? The short answer is, I do not know. But let me put some stats to it. Through September 26, we are averaging about 14 contracts a day in Rutherford County. That is about 100 homes a week going under contract, and we have been at that pace for three straight months. July was that way, August was that way, and September is actually slightly up per day compared with July and August. So the market is moving a little more in September.

The interesting thing is that the number of available homes continues to rise. Even though roughly the same number of homes are selling, there are more homes to choose from, so a lower percentage of homes are actually selling. We have had flat demand, and we are going into a time of year, especially closer to the holidays, when demand often drops off. With that said, December is usually one of our better months for closings. There are a lot of reasons. Some people are moving into the area and want to get settled over the holiday break before the second semester starts. Some people made a resolution to buy a house this year and want to get into it before the end of the year. A lot of people think homes do not sell in December, and actually December is a pretty decent month for sales.

Showings are down, even though September’s contracts per day are a little better. Homes in the upper $300,000s got about a quarter fewer showings this July and August than they did last July and August.

New construction still plays a big part in what sellers and buyers are competing against. I sat at the closing table with a young couple on Thursday. The 30 year rate that day was 7%, and I watched them sign their closing documents at a much lower rate because the builder was offering that incentive. We figured it was about $400 a month difference in their payment just from the rate. So new construction is still a player in this market. About one third of the homes going under contract right now are new construction. That means about two thirds are resales, so there are still plenty of people buying resale homes, but there are also good incentives for buyers in new construction.

So what are we looking at? First of all, prices are not falling across the board. If you hit the market priced correctly and presented correctly, you are getting close to full price for your house in that first week. But if you miss that price point, you are having to drop your asking price. Remember, the asking price is just what you want. It does not mean that is where you are going to end up, so sellers, do not get attached to it, and buyers, do not get attached to it either. We talked last week about what market value really is: it is what a seller and a buyer can agree to.

Sellers, you need to expect a slower pace than summer, so you cannot be pricing against something that sold in the spring. You have to look at what is happening right now. Quite frankly, it is a little tough. From a Realtor standpoint, it is a delicate balance trying to guide our sellers so they do not leave money on the table but still get the house sold. We are walking through this with our sellers every day, and this market is just not clear cut right now. It is almost like we have two markets. We have the homes that come on priced correctly and flow right off the market, and then we have everything else sitting there, with sellers getting frustrated. When that happens, buyers, that is your time to make a deal. Buyers, you have more leverage, especially through the holidays, and that should be encouraging. If you are in a position to buy, you ought to think about it right now.

I hope this information helps you. The reality is that homes are selling. Sellers, homes are selling, just not at the pace you may want. Buyers, there are homes sitting, so there is opportunity. We still have a market that is moving, just a little slower than a lot of people would like, which is not a bad thing. Our market went so crazy during the pandemic that slowing down a little and resetting is good for the market as a whole. But if you are a seller right now, I understand the frustration.

Again, I am John Turner, team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate. If you have any questions about any of this data, or if you need help buying or selling a house, please talk to us. We would love to guide you through this market and help you get where you want to go. Until next week, I hope you make it a great week. Thank you.