Overpriced Homes in Williamson County: Why Good Homes Are Sitting
About a third of the homes for sale in Williamson County have been sitting for more than 90 days. Of 1,730 active listings, 572 have passed that mark. The common explanation is that buyers disappeared, but the data points at overpriced homes in Williamson County instead.
Turner Victory Team data shows that homes sitting past 90 days in the $700,000 to $1 million range are asking 4.3% to 7.9% more per square foot than buyers actually paid in those same brackets. Meanwhile homes that go under contract negotiate only about 1% to 2% off the asking price. Buyers are not lowballing. They are skipping.
The question John Turner hears most often in Franklin and Brentwood right now is some version of “where did all the buyers go?” It is a fair question when a beautiful home sits for four months. But the answer, at least in the price ranges where most of the sitting is happening, is that overpriced homes in Williamson County are the problem, not vanishing demand.
Buyer demand this year has actually run ahead of 2023 and 2024. That makes overpriced homes in Williamson County a harder thing to talk about, because the usual excuse is not available.
Every week the Turner Victory Team tracks Williamson County market conditions through live Realtracs MLS data and our Tru Insights™ platform. This report covers the week ending August 22, 2026, and serves Franklin, Brentwood, Nolensville, Spring Hill, Thompsons Station, College Grove, Arrington, and Fairview. For the full charts, visit the Williamson County market update page or the interactive market charts.
The Gap That Identifies Overpriced Homes in Williamson County
Here is the comparison that makes the case. On one side, what homes sitting past 90 days are asking per square foot. On the other, what buyers actually paid per square foot in that same bracket.
| Price Range | Sitting Homes Ask | Buyers Paid | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| $700,000 to $799,000 | $317 | $298 | 6.4% |
| $800,000 to $899,000 | $319 | $306 | 4.3% |
| $900,000 to $999,000 | $341 | $316 | 7.9% |
Price per square foot is an imperfect measure and John Turner says so plainly. Acreage, updates, square footage, and location all move that number, and no two homes are a true apples to apples comparison. But the pattern repeats across three consecutive brackets covering 698 sold homes and 87 sitting homes. That is not a thin sample, and it is not a coincidence.
The negotiation defense does not hold
The natural objection is that the gap closes during negotiation. It does not, and this is the strongest evidence against overpriced homes in Williamson County simply being a starting point.
Homes that go under contract in Williamson County are negotiating only about 1% to 2% off the asking price. Sellers who priced correctly are getting essentially the number they asked for. Apply that 1% to 2% to the sitting homes and they are still roughly 2.5% to 6% above what buyers are paying.
Buyer Demand Is Not the Reason
If buyers had left, overpriced homes in Williamson County would be an unfair diagnosis. But weekly contract volume tells a different story.
Williamson County weekly contracts came in at 102, 102, 103, 104, and 91 across the five most recent complete weeks. Every one of those weeks ran above the same week in both 2023 and 2024. Volume is off roughly 5% from a strong 2025, which is a modest decline, not a collapse.
Buyers are here. They are looking at two homes with similar square footage in the same part of Franklin, one priced at what the market has been paying and one priced 7% above it, and they are writing on the first one.
Williamson County This Week
The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score™ for Williamson County sits at 44 for the week ending August 22, 2026, which reads as balanced with a lean toward buyers.
Active inventory is running roughly 200 homes above this time last year, so competition among sellers is real. That extra competition is exactly what makes overpriced homes in Williamson County so easy for buyers to pass over.
New construction accounts for 28% of active listings but made up 31% of this week’s pending sales. Builders are converting at a slightly higher rate than their share of inventory, and builder incentives are part of why.
New listings fell off sharply
The number worth watching is new listings, which dropped noticeably over the past two to three weeks. Some seasonal slowdown is normal in late August as families finish summer moves. This gap is larger than the usual pattern.
For anyone already listed, that is quietly good news. Fewer fresh listings arriving each week means less new competition, and it is part of why months of supply has been easing since late spring.
The $1 million to $1.5 million exception
Months of supply in the $1 million to $1.5 million range sits at 2.67, tighter than several lower price points. That is unusual and worth flagging. There are 279 active homes in that band, so it is not a thin bracket producing a noisy number. Demand there appears stronger relative to supply, which shows up in showing activity as well.
Sellers in that range have better odds. Buyers in that range have more competition than they probably expect.
Showings Are the Leading Indicator
Countywide, average showings per listing are now below one per week. Homes under $700,000 are drawing more traffic than that, and the $1 million to $1.5 million band shows a modest bump, but the overall direction is down.
Showings come before contracts. When showing activity slides, pending sales usually follow a few weeks later. Part of the decline is seasonal and part traces to mortgage rates, which sit at 6.65% and have been climbing since mid February. Freddie Mac publishes that weekly national average each Thursday.
Falling showings raise the cost of being wrong on price. With fewer buyers walking through, an overpriced home gets fewer chances to be discovered by the one buyer who might stretch.
What to Do About Overpriced Homes in Williamson County
If You Are Selling
Look at your competition, but understand that your competition can be overpriced too. Comparing to other sitting listings is how a home stays sitting. Look instead at what buyers have actually paid recently in your range, and weight the most recent sales heaviest since mortgage rates have moved. Then decide honestly whether you are a seller or testing the water. See how the Turner Victory Team approaches pricing.
If You Are Buying
Opportunity lives in the homes that have been sitting, but only where the seller has room and motivation. At the same time, do not assume every home will eventually cut its price. Correctly priced homes in Williamson County are still moving quickly. When a good one appears at a fair number, waiting is how you lose it. See how the Turner Victory Team guides buyers.
The hardest conversation in this market is with a seller whose home is genuinely nice. Nothing is wrong with the house. That is what makes overpriced homes in Williamson County so frustrating, because the fix is not renovation or staging or better photos. It is a number.
Whether you are buying, selling, or relocating to Williamson County, the numbers move every week and your city and price range change the whole picture. For a related read, our post on why Williamson County homes sit covers the timing side of this question.
Market Analysis by John Turner, Creator of Tru Insights.
Are you a seller in Williamson County? I am not asking if your home is on the market. I am asking, are you truly a seller in Williamson County? We are going to explore that in just a minute.
I am John Turner, team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate, and we bring you the Williamson County Real Estate Report every week. I appreciate you tuning in. We are looking at some stats this week about the Williamson County real estate market, and they are very interesting.
First of all, about a third of all homes on the market right now have been sitting a while. There are 1,730 homes on the market as I record this, and 572 of them have been on the market for over 90 days. This does not include relists, so someone may have pulled a home off and put it back on, which could take that number even higher. But right now, without factoring that in, about a third of the homes on the market have been listed for over 90 days.
What I generally hear is, well John, there are just no buyers out there. I would disagree with you, and the numbers disagree with you. I would submit that it is more of a pricing problem than a demand problem.
Now do not get me wrong. We do not have enough buyers to buy every house on the market, but we never have that in any market. It is not feasible. I guess I should say that during the feeding frenzy of the covid years, almost every house sold no matter what it was. Not every one did, but a lot of them did.
Let me jump into a chart. This is our pendings by week. When you look at the orange, that is this year, and the green is last year. We have exceeded most weeks, not every week, the number of pendings from last year. So we have had a bigger percentage of homes go under contract this year than we did last year. Why do I bring that up? Because to me that shows there is buyer demand, and that buyer demand has picked up over this time last year.
Now let us talk about the pricing problem, which I think is very interesting. When you look at the $700,000 to $800,000 price range and talk about price per square foot, I know there are a lot of factors that go into price per square foot. Is the home sitting on acreage or not? Is it updated or not? How big, how small, what is the location? I get that. So you cannot say this is a true apples to apples comparison, but with that said, it gives you some insight about the market.
Right now homes in Williamson County listed between $700,000 and $800,000 that have been sitting on the market for 90 days or more are priced at $317 a square foot. The ones that sold, buyers paid $298 a square foot. That is a difference of $19 a square foot, which is about 6.4%.
If we look at the $800,000 to $900,000 price point, it is about the same thing. The asking price of those on the market over 90 days is $319, and buyers paid $306, which is about a 4.3% difference. In the $900,000 to $1 million price point, there is about an 8% difference between what the homes sitting on the market are asking and what the homes that sold got. That is $341 a square foot asking, and buyers paid $316 a square foot.
Now some of that gap bridges a little when you negotiate, and you are correct about that. But generally speaking, those that have gone under contract only had to negotiate about 1% or 2% on the price. There may be some concessions they gave in on, but on the price it is 1% to 2%. So if you factor that in, the homes sitting on the market in those price points are still about two and a half to 6% higher than what the homes that are selling are priced at.
It is really an interesting dynamic, because this market right now is very sensitive to price. If you have been on the market for a while, I certainly suggest you go check your price and see where you are. And not so much against your competition. You do want to look at your competition, but your competition can be priced too high. You need to look at what buyers have paid, and the more recent the better, because mortgage rates have been on the rise since the middle of February. That affects what a buyer can do as well.
The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score is a 44 for Williamson County. That means it is close to balanced, but leaning toward buyers because of some of the things we are talking about. We have 1,730 active listings right now, 3.82 months supply, and the 30 year rate is at 6.65%. These rates come out on Thursday, and on Friday it actually went up even more.
Out of the 1,730 homes currently on the market, 28% are new construction. And you can see that 31% of what pended this week was new construction. That is even higher than what is active on the market right now.
These price points are interesting. The $1 million to $1.5 million range is at 2.67 months supply. We have really been watching that, and it seems like it is tightening up. If you are a seller in that price point, good for you. There may be a good chance you can get it sold and sold quickly. But if you are a buyer there, you have more competition. It is a little unusual to see a number that much better than some of the lower price points, so just a little anomaly there.
Let us go back to our charts. Note that right now our active inventory, even though it is mirroring what we did last year, is running about 200 units more on the market this time this year than we had last year. So even though we talked about our pendings being up slightly, there are more homes on the market. There is more competition for you out there.
Month supply has been going down ever since late spring. We were nearly four and a half months. We are down to 3.82. Some of that has to do with buyer demand, because we just showed you that active inventory is up, but demand is eating into that active inventory a little quicker than earlier in the year.
New listings is another thing we are really watching. Look at this huge drop off we have seen with new listings. That is not new construction, that is homes being listed. I think that can really impact our active inventory, and that is the reason it is starting to level off and drop a little. If you notice this whole chart, it is not unusual this time of year for us to bring less new listings on the market, but this is quite a bit. That is a big gap the past two or three weeks. It will be very interesting to watch.
I want to hit on where all that inventory is. We just talked about $1 million to $1.5 million being a market that does not have that much month supply, but overall supply we have quite a bit, 279 units on the market. That is a little higher than the $800,000 to $1 million range. I do think the velocity of how these are going off the market right now is really what is keeping that month supply down, because it seems like we have more buyers in that price point.
This is your average showings per listing. It has held pretty steady. Anything below $700,000 is getting a few more showings. But look at the $1 million to $1.5 million range and it shows exactly what I was talking about, where you see a little increase. That means we have a few more buyers out in that price point. So if you are a buyer, you have competition. If you are a seller, I will not say you are in the driver’s seat, but you certainly have a little more hope of getting your home sold.
With that said, our average showings are continuing to drop off. We are below one showing per listing per week. It is definitely a drop off, and something you need to pay attention to. Some of that is seasonal, and some has to do with mortgage rates staying elevated and continuing to increase. I am not sure we are going to see a lot of relief on that front right now.
I know we have things going on in the Middle East, which has some concerns. But also inflation has just been so stubborn. Some of that is prices and gas prices, I get that, but there are a lot of other things factored in there. The jobs numbers came out last week and they were not that great. You would have thought we would get help with mortgage rates, but we did not. I do not try to figure that part out. There are people a lot smarter than me who cannot figure it out, so I certainly do not try.
I hope this information helps you. The main thing is that if you are trying to sell a home in Williamson County, you have really got to decide whether you are a seller or not. If you are playing at it, you are probably not going to be happy with the results. But if you truly want to get sold, there is a path to get it sold. If you are buying in Williamson County, there is some opportunity there for you. But with that said, whenever a good house comes on the market, you cannot just sit there and wait and think they are going to drop the price, because they are still selling fairly quickly when they are priced and presented correctly.
Again, I am John Turner, team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate. We bring this information to you every week. Please let us know if you have any questions, and we appreciate you tuning in this week. Until next week, I hope you make it a great week. Thank you.
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