What Are the Odds of Selling Your Home in Murfreesboro?
The odds of selling your home in Rutherford County are about two out of three. Turner Victory Team data shows 63.3% of existing homes went under contract within 90 days of first coming on the market, measured across 1,351 homes that listed between November 2025 and April 2026.
The odds of selling your home hold up remarkably well across the county. Seven of the eight Rutherford County ZIP codes land between 61.4% and 69.4%. What moves the number far more than location is the first three weeks. 91.3% of homes that found a buyer did it on the very first listing, which says less about relisting and more about correcting while you are still on the market.
Every seller wants one number before the sign goes in the yard. What are the odds of selling your home in Murfreesboro, and how long is it going to take? Almost nobody publishes an answer, because producing one takes real work.
So the Turner Victory Team ran it. Across 1,351 existing homes that came on the market in Rutherford County, 63.3% went under contract within 90 days. Roughly two out of three. This report breaks down the odds of selling your home ZIP code by ZIP code, and shows what actually moves the number.
Every week the Turner Victory Team tracks Rutherford County market conditions through live Realtracs MLS data and our Tru Insights™ platform. This report covers the week ending August 1, 2026, and serves Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Christiana, Eagleville, Rockvale, and Lascassas. For the full charts, visit the Rutherford County market update page.
How the Odds of Selling Your Home in Rutherford County Were Measured
Before the numbers, the method matters, because the odds of selling your home can mean very different things depending on who is counting.
The Turner Victory Team measured every existing home in Rutherford County that first came on the market between November 2025 and April 2026. Each home was given a full 90 days. The question was simple. Did it go under contract inside that window and eventually close?
Three details separate this from a typical days on market figure.
The denominator is every home that listed
Not just the ones that sold. When a report says homes are selling in 30 days, that figure comes only from the winners. Every home that expired, cancelled, or is still sitting gets left out. The odds of selling your home have to include the homes that did not sell, or the number tells a seller nothing useful.
The clock starts the first day the home ever listed
Not the most recent listing. Turner Victory Team Tru Days on Market™ counts days from previous listings at the same address, so a home that came off the market and went back on does not get to reset its clock. A home that sat 60 days, expired, relisted, and went under contract 40 days later did not sell in 40 days. It took 100.
New construction is excluded
Builders list and close on a different schedule, often six months or longer from contract to closing while the home is being built. Leaving builder inventory in would distort the odds of selling your home for an ordinary homeowner.
The Odds of Selling Your Home by ZIP Code
Here is what the Turner Victory Team found for the odds of selling your home across Rutherford County. These are existing homes only.
| ZIP Code | Area | Homes Measured | Under Contract in 90 Days |
|---|---|---|---|
| 37037 | Christiana | 62 | 69.4% |
| 37129 | Northwest Murfreesboro | 273 | 68.5% |
| 37130 | Downtown and East Murfreesboro | 173 | 65.9% |
| 37127 | South Murfreesboro | 94 | 62.8% |
| 37167 | Smyrna | 224 | 62.5% |
| 37128 | Southwest Murfreesboro and Blackman | 366 | 61.5% |
| 37086 | La Vergne | 132 | 61.4% |
| 37153 | Rockvale | 27 | 40.7% |
The headline is not which ZIP code won. When you line up the odds of selling your home side by side, what stands out is how little separates them. Seven of the eight ZIP codes land between 61.4% and 69.4%. That is an eight point spread across an entire county.
Rockvale, ZIP code 37153, shows 40.7%. That number is real but it rests on only 27 existing homes, which is too small a group to draw a conclusion from. The Turner Victory Team includes it for completeness and flags it rather than letting it look like a trend. The U.S. Census Bureau tracks how quickly the smaller communities in Rutherford County are growing, and as Rockvale adds homes that sample will get more reliable.
Why the Odds of Selling Your Home Are Not 100%
Two out of three sounds low to some sellers and high to others when they first hear the odds of selling your home.
The odds of selling your home are not a guarantee, and the homes that missed the 90 day window fall into several groups. Some expired. Some were cancelled. Some are still on the market today. And some went under contract on day 95 or day 130, which is a win for that seller even though it lands outside this measurement.
So the odds of selling your home eventually are higher than 63.3%. What this figure measures is speed as much as outcome. It answers whether a home found a buyer inside the first three months, which is the window that decides how much a seller keeps.
What Actually Moves the Odds of Selling Your Home
If location only accounts for an eight point spread, something else is doing the heavy lifting. Turner Victory Team data points to two things, and both are inside the seller’s control.
The first listing carries almost all the weight
Of the Rutherford County homes that went under contract within 90 days, 91.3% did it on the very first listing. Only about one in eleven had to come off the market and try again.
That changes how you should think about the odds of selling your home. A lot of sellers treat coming off the market as a reset button. Pull the listing, wait a while, come back fresh, and start over with a clean slate. Turner Victory Team data shows that reset is far less powerful than people assume.
It is not that relisting never works. It is that the homes finding buyers are overwhelmingly the ones that stayed on the market and made corrections while they were there. Adjusting the price, reshooting the photos, fixing what showings were telling them, all without leaving. That is where the outcome gets decided.
There is also a mechanical reason the first listing carries so much weight. Turner Victory Team Tru Days on Market™ counts days from previous listings at the same address, so the clock does not actually restart when a home comes back. The listing looks new to a casual browser, but the market has already seen it.
Speed and price move together
The Turner Victory Team tracked 5,452 Rutherford County closings over the last 12 months and sorted them by how long each home sat before going under contract.
| Time on Market | Share of All Closings | Percent of Tru Original List Price |
|---|---|---|
| 0 to 7 days | 30.1% | 99.7% |
| 8 to 30 days | 24.2% | 97.9% |
| 31 to 60 days | 18.0% | 96.0% |
| 61 to 90 days | 9.9% | 95.0% |
| 91 to 180 days | 12.6% | 92.9% |
| Over 180 days | 5.3% | 92.6% |
Speed is where the odds of selling your home turn into dollars. More than half of all homes that sold, 54.3%, went under contract within the first 30 days. Homes that found a buyer in the first week received 99.7% of their Turner Victory Team Tru Original List Price™, which is the first price the home was ever offered at, before any reductions.
Past 90 days that figure falls to 92.9%. On a home first listed at $450,000, that gap is roughly $30,600. That is the practical reason the odds of selling your home in the first 90 days matter so much. It is not only whether the home sells. It is what the seller walks away with.
Why ZIP Code Matters Less Than Most People Think
Ask ten homeowners which part of Rutherford County sells fastest and you will get strong opinions about the odds of selling your home by neighborhood. The data says the differences are real but modest.
Christiana at 69.4% and La Vergne at 61.4% sit eight points apart. Meaningful, but not the difference between a market that works and one that does not. Both are solidly in the range where most homes find a buyer within three months.
Compare that to what happens inside a single ZIP code depending on price. Homes across Rutherford County that went under contract in the first week received 99.7% of their original asking price. Homes that sat past 90 days received 92.9%. That gap is far larger than anything geography produces.
The practical takeaway is that a seller has more control than they might assume. You cannot change your ZIP code. You can change your price, your photos, your condition, and your first three weeks on the market. The Turner Victory Team listing process is built around those first three weeks.
How This Week Affects the Odds of Selling Your Home
The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score™ for Rutherford County sits at 44 for the week ending August 1, 2026. That reads as a balanced market leaning slightly toward buyers.
Active listings dropped from 1,669 the week before, which slightly improves the odds of selling your home by thinning the competition. Months of supply landed at 3.30, compared to 3.16 at this time last year. One number worth watching is that 148 listings expired or were cancelled during the week, more than the 111 that went under contract. A single week does not establish a trend, and a large share of that total is likely tied to new construction listing agreements that end on a set schedule.
The 30 year fixed mortgage rate stands at 6.66%, slightly lower than the 6.72% of a year ago. The number that changed is the March low of 5.97%. Freddie Mac publishes the weekly national average. Buyers who built a budget in early spring are shopping a different payment today, and anyone buying a home in Rutherford County is feeling that change.
What the Odds of Selling Your Home Mean for You
If You Are Selling
The odds of selling your home are better than most headlines suggest, and they hold up in nearly every ZIP code. What separates the homes that make it is the first three weeks. Price, photos, and condition on day one decide the outcome far more than your address does. See how the Turner Victory Team approaches pricing.
If You Are Buying
The odds of selling your home work in reverse for a buyer. Roughly a third of Rutherford County listings do not find a buyer inside 90 days, and those homes are where negotiating room lives. If a home has been sitting past 60 days, the market has already told you something. Ask why before you assume it is a bargain. See how the Turner Victory Team guides buyers.
Families moving to Murfreesboro from other markets ask the same question from the buying side. If you want to know the odds of selling your home specifically, that means looking at your ZIP code, your price range, your subdivision, and your competition. That is the conversation to have before the sign goes in the yard, not after 60 days of quiet. For a related look at pricing, our post on how to know if your home is priced right is a good next read.
Market Analysis by John Turner, Creator of Tru Insights.
If you are selling your house in Rutherford County, what are the odds that you will find a buyer within the first 90 days of going on the market? I am John Turner, team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate. This is the Murfreesboro Real Estate Report, where we cover Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Eagleville, Christiana, Lascassas, and Rockvale.
First, the odds of selling your home. This is for existing homes because we pulled out the new construction, and you have a two out of three chance of your home going under contract within the first 90 days. That stat holds up across the entire county, but it is slightly different depending on which ZIP code you are in, and we will get to that breakdown.
The second thing you need to know is that almost every home that sells actually sells on the first listing. About 91% of them. We have talked a lot on here about the strategy of putting your house on the market, then pulling it off and putting it back out there after some touch up painting or landscaping. But the stats show that nine out of ten homes that sell, sell on that first listing. That does not mean they never had a price reduction. It means the correction happened while they were still on the market. It speaks to motivation, to how you are presenting your house, and to how you are reading the market.
The third thing is mortgage rates. What people forget is that today’s rate, although it is higher than it has been all this year, is still lower than it was this time last year. We had such momentum back at the end of February and through the spring that it is easy to forget.
The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score is at 44 right now for Rutherford County. That means a balanced market leaning toward buyers. We have 1,583 homes on the market, 3.3 months supply of inventory, and the 30 year fixed rate at 6.66%. Nearly 35% of the active inventory is new construction. Of the 129 homes that came on the market last week, almost 50% were new construction. We had 148 homes come off the market as expired or cancelled versus 111 that went under contract. I think that is a one week anomaly, but we will know in the next couple of weeks.
Anything below $400,000 or $500,000 is in the green, and the $800,000 to $1 million range is also green. Those are leaning toward sellers. Yellow is more of a balanced market. If you are a seller in one of those yellow price points, it feels like a buyer’s market because you are sitting on the market longer than you would like.
Inventory dropped from 1,669 last week to 1,583 this week. All three previous years show this same little dip. New construction builders put several homes on the market with listing agreements that expire at the end of a certain month or quarter. So it is not unusual, and I would anticipate inventory jumping back up next week.
Months of supply is 3.3 right now versus 3.16 this time last year. Not a huge difference. New listings are down again, and for the past five or six weeks we have been trailing last year. Our weekly pendings have also been below last year for the past three weeks. Earlier in 2026 we were outpacing 2025 almost the entire first half. The market has slowed a little, and I think that comes back to mortgage rates and to pent up demand. People who had been sitting on the sidelines took advantage of rates that were lower than they had been, and that accelerated some of the activity in the spring and early summer.
Showings are a leading indicator. If you are in the $300,000 to $400,000 range, you should be getting showings. If you are not, check your price and how you are presenting online. Look how quickly showings have dropped over the past five or six weeks. We were at the height earlier this year and right now we are just barely above one showing per week per listing. That tells me buyer activity has slowed. We also have fewer new listings coming on, so there is some correlation there.
The longer your house sits, the less money you get for it. Over the past 12 months, 30% of the homes that sold went under contract in the first seven days, and they got nearly 100% of their asking price. They were priced right and presented right. Another 24% went under contract between day 8 and day 30, and they still got nearly 98%. That means almost 55% of all homes that went under contract did it in the first 30 days. After that, things slow way down, and the percentage you get of your Tru Original List Price drops as well. If you have been on the market a while, know that the market is expecting you to make a concession somewhere.
Now the ZIP code breakdown, and how the odds of selling your home change by area. 37128, which is southwest Murfreesboro and the Blackman area, has had more sales than any other ZIP code, closely followed by 37129 and then Smyrna. But that does not tell the whole story. If you look at 37037, which is Christiana, and remember we pulled out all the new construction so this is only existing homes, almost 70% of the homes that went on the market sold within the first 90 days. In 37129 it is strong too at nearly 69%. It drops a little in downtown Murfreesboro, but 66% is still good. Rockvale, 37153, is on the chart but the sample size is too small to draw from. There is nothing wrong with Rockvale, there is just not enough data there yet.
There are a lot of things that can affect the odds of selling your home. If you work in Franklin, you may want to be more on the west side of town. Schools play a part too. In Rutherford County and Murfreesboro City we have great schools, some of the best around, but there are certain schools that people ask for more than others. If you are selling, you need to pay attention to this because it affects what you can ask for your house and how long it will take to market it.
It is fun breaking down this data. We looked at some different things today than what we normally look at, just because it is stuff I was curious about. I like to use it to help my clients make good decisions, whether they are buying or selling. One of the things I am proud of with our team is that the majority of our team members have been with us for over a decade. If you have a real estate need, not only in Rutherford County but anywhere in the Middle Tennessee area, please reach out to me or one of our team members. Until next week, make it a great week.
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