It is March 1, 2026, and the Murfreesboro real estate market is building momentum heading into spring. This week in Rutherford County, 131 homes went under contract while only 119 new listings came on the market. That is the first time in a while pendings have outpaced new listings. Combined with mortgage rates dropping below 6 percent for the first time in roughly three and a half years, the data is telling us something worth paying attention to.

What Are This Week’s Numbers for Rutherford County?

Here is a full look at where the market stands this week across Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, Eagleville, Lascassas, Rockvale, Christiana, and the rest of the county.

Why Are Pending Sales Outpacing New Listings Right Now?

When more homes go under contract than come on the market, that is a sign of tightening. New listings have been trending below 2025 numbers for most of the year so far, and this week’s 119 continues that pattern. On the demand side, pendings are strong. This week’s 131 is right in line with last week’s 133 and well ahead of where we were at this point in both 2024 and 2025.

If you are curious about the three keys to getting your home sold in this kind of market, we covered that in a recent post on the blog. The short version: price, presentation, and positioning all matter more when buyers have options but are also moving with more confidence.

How Are February Closings Tracking Compared to Last Year?

February is not fully closed out yet, but as of right now we have 358 closings for the month compared to 334 at this point last year. That puts us up roughly 7 percent year over year. January was similar, with 301 closings versus 286 the prior year.

Looking ahead to March, based on where pendings are tracking right now, the projection is somewhere between 450 and 470 closings. Last March had 419. We will check back at the end of the month and see how close that projection lands.

What Does the Rate Drop Below 6 Percent Mean for Buyers and Sellers?

The 30-year fixed mortgage rate closed last week at 5.98 percent according to FRED data. That is the first time we have been below 6 percent in roughly three and a half years. A year ago at this time rates were at 6.76 percent, and they topped out at 6.89 percent back in May of last year.

That nearly full percentage point drop makes a real difference in monthly payments. For the same home, a buyer today has a lower payment than they would have had a year ago — or they can afford a slightly more expensive home for the same monthly number. Either way, affordability is moving in the right direction for the first time in a while.

Why Are New Listings Still Running Below Expectations?

This is the biggest watch item heading into spring. New listings are coming in a little slower than expected. The assumption was that as mortgage rates dropped, some of the locked-in inventory would start to loosen up. A lot of homeowners have been sitting on 3 percent or 3.5 percent rates and could not justify moving into a rate in the sixes.

But with rates now in the high fives, some of those homeowners are going to start doing the math and realizing the move is more workable than it was. Especially when you factor in the equity built up over the past few years. If you have been thinking about making a move but felt stuck, the numbers are more in your favor right now than they have been at any point in the last two or three years.

Watch This Week’s Full Market Update

What Is the Big Picture for the Murfreesboro Market This Spring?

The word that keeps coming up when looking at this data is momentum. The market is not overheated and it is not stalled. But the numbers are pointing in a clear direction. Pending sales are up, closings are ahead of last year, rates are at their lowest point in years, and affordability is improving. At the same time, new listings are not keeping pace with demand, which could tighten conditions further as we move deeper into spring.

If you are thinking about buying or selling in Murfreesboro, Smyrna, La Vergne, or anywhere in Rutherford County, we would be glad to sit down and look at the data with you. Free consultation, no pressure — just a clear look at your options based on what is actually happening in the market right now.