Is Williamson County Shifting to a Buyers Market? What the Data Shows

Is Williamson County shifting to a buyers market? That is the question buyers and sellers in Franklin, Brentwood, and Nolensville are asking right now, and the data this week gives us a clearer answer than we have had in months. The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score for Williamson County dropped from 61 just a few weeks ago to 52 today. Active inventory is up 11.2% year over year. New listings have come in below 2024 and 2025 levels for 13 straight weeks. And showings per listing are trending down. None of those signals on their own is alarming. Together, they paint a picture of a market in transition.

Every number in this report comes from live MLS data processed through Tru Insights, the Turner Victory Team’s proprietary market analytics system. We publish this data every week so buyers and sellers in Williamson County always have real information to work from. This report covers the week ending May 17, 2026. For the full weekly archive, visit the Williamson County Real Estate Market Update page.

Is Williamson County Shifting to a Buyers Market? Here Is What the Numbers Show

Whether Williamson County is shifting to a buyers market depends on which metric you look at and which price range you are in. The overall Market Health Score of 52 places the county in balanced market territory — but the direction of movement matters as much as the number itself. Just a few weeks ago that score was 61, comfortably in seller’s market range. The drop to 52 in a short period is the kind of directional shift that sellers need to pay attention to before it becomes a trend that has fully arrived.

Months of supply tells a similar story. At 4.4 months countywide, Williamson County sits in balanced territory. But that number has climbed from 3.61 months in mid-March — nearly a full month of additional supply in just two months. If that pace continues through summer, is Williamson County shifting to a buyers market becomes less of a question and more of a confirmed reality.

The answer right now is: it depends on your price range. In the $600,000 to $700,000 bracket, months of supply is under two — that is still a strong seller’s market. But as you move up in price, the picture changes. Higher price points carry significantly more supply and slower absorption. Sellers in those ranges are already operating in buyer-favorable conditions whether they know it or not.

What Is Driving the Shift — and Is Williamson County Shifting to a Buyers Market for Good?

Understanding whether Williamson County is shifting to a buyers market requires looking at the forces driving inventory higher even as new listings stay below prior years. Two things are happening at the same time, and they seem to contradict each other.

New listings have come in below 2024 and 2025 levels for 13 consecutive weeks. This week they are down 37% compared to the same week last year. Fewer new listings normally means tighter inventory. But inventory is growing anyway — up 11.2% year over year, with active listings climbing from around 1,267 seven weeks ago to 1,574 today. The reason is that homes are sitting longer. When the pace of new contracts slows relative to the pace of new listings, inventory accumulates even if the raw number of new listings is lower than prior years.

Pending home sales have maintained a six-week streak of outperforming 2025 numbers, which is a positive sign for demand. But this week pendings dropped from 148 to 119, a meaningful single-week decline. One week does not make a trend, but it is worth watching. The question of whether Williamson County is shifting to a buyers market will be answered in the next four to six weeks by whether pending activity can hold its momentum as inventory continues to grow.

The Speed of the Market: What 35% Selling in Week One Tells Us

Even in a shifting market, 35% of Williamson County homes go under contract within the first seven days. That number is important context for anyone asking whether Williamson County is shifting to a buyers market — because it shows that well-priced, well-presented homes are still moving fast. The market has not stalled. It has split.

On the other end, 22% of homes have been on the market past 90 days. Right now 378 active listings in Williamson County have crossed that line — 24% of the entire market. And the data on what happens to those homes is consistent with what we see in Rutherford County: two thirds expire or cancel without selling under that MLS number. Sellers who do close past 90 days are getting under 91% of their original asking price.

That split is the defining characteristic of a market that is shifting but has not fully turned. The homes at the top of the value stack in each price bracket are still selling quickly and at strong prices. The homes that are overpriced, under-presented, or poorly positioned are sitting and accumulating days on market. Is Williamson County shifting to a buyers market for those sellers? It already has.

Tru Days on Market vs. What the MLS Shows

One of the most important data points the Turner Victory Team tracks through Tru Insights is the gap between what the MLS reports as days on market and what we call Tru Days on Market — the actual time a home has been trying to sell, including any period it was pulled off the market and relisted within 60 days.

In Williamson County, that gap grows significantly at higher price points. In the lower price ranges, the MLS figure and the true figure are close. But in the $4,000,000 to $5,000,000 range, the MLS shows approximately 64 days on market while the true figure is closer to 108 days. That is 44 extra days the MLS is not showing — days when a buyer could assume the home is newer to market than it actually is. For buyers evaluating whether Williamson County is shifting to a buyers market, Tru Insights gives a clearer picture of how long homes are actually sitting than the standard MLS data does.

Showings Are Declining — What That Means for Sellers Right Now

Showing activity in Williamson County has been trending down over the past several weeks. The Turner Victory Team tracks showings directly through Realtracs across all Williamson County price brackets. The highest showing activity right now is in the $600,000 to $700,000 range, where listings are averaging just over three showings per week. Above $700,000, activity remains near three per week but has declined from where it was earlier this year.

Declining showings in a market where inventory is growing is one of the clearest signals that the Williamson County market is tilting toward buyers. More homes competing for a similar or slightly smaller pool of active buyers means each individual listing gets a smaller share of attention. For sellers currently on the market, this is the signal to pay attention to. If your showing count is falling below the bracket average for your price range, the market is giving you information that your pricing or presentation needs to respond to — not in week eight, but now.

What This Market Means If You Are Buying in Williamson County

For buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines, the data makes a compelling case that the window is opening. Is Williamson County shifting to a buyers market? In several price ranges and at the higher end of the market, the answer is yes — and buyers who move with preparation and confidence right now have more options and more leverage than they have had in years. The Turner Victory Team has been tracking whether Williamson County is shifting to a buyers market every week through Tru Insights, and the current data is the clearest directional signal we have seen in 2026.

Mortgage rates at 6.36% are meaningfully better than the 6.81% of this time last year, according to the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey. Prices have remained relatively flat. And with 4.4 months of supply countywide and growing, sellers in many brackets are motivated. New construction is also a real opportunity for buyers right now. Builders representing 27.4% of closings over the past six months are offering rate buydowns, closing cost credits, and design incentives to move inventory. The National Association of Home Builders has confirmed builder incentives remain elevated nationally throughout 2026.

If you are thinking about buying a home in Williamson County, the Turner Victory Team can show you which brackets offer the most buyer leverage right now and which builders are offering the most meaningful incentives. If you are considering relocating to Middle Tennessee, this data is worth understanding before you start your search.

What This Market Means If You Are Selling in Williamson County

If you are selling in Williamson County right now, the honest answer is that the market is more demanding than it was six months ago. Is Williamson County shifting to a buyers market? Directionally, yes. That does not mean your home cannot sell quickly and at a strong price. Thirty-five percent of homes still do exactly that in week one. But it does mean the margin for error on pricing, presentation, and positioning has narrowed considerably. Every seller we work with right now gets a direct answer to whether Williamson County is shifting to a buyers market at their specific price point before we ever talk about list price.

The four P’s the Turner Victory Team uses with every seller apply here with particular urgency: Presentation, Promotion, Pricing, and Positioning. In a shifting market, positioning becomes the most underappreciated of the four. With more homes on the market and showing activity declining, understanding how many homes are likely to sell in your price bracket this month and making sure yours is positioned to be one of them is not optional. It is the difference between selling in week one and sitting past 90 days.

If you are thinking about selling your home in Williamson County, reach out before you list. The Turner Victory Team will show you exactly where your home stands in the current market using live Tru Insights data — and what it will take to be in the 35% that goes under contract in week one. Learn more about why buyers and sellers choose the Turner Victory Team and why working with a real estate team in this market gives you a real advantage.