Home Appreciation in Murfreesboro: What the Q1 2026 Federal Data Shows
Home appreciation in Murfreesboro gained 1.8% in Q1 2026 according to the FHFA House Price Index, nearly four times the national quarterly rate of 0.5%. The Nashville-Murfreesboro-Franklin metro ranked 54th out of the top 100 metros nationally. At the same time, showing activity in Rutherford County continued to pull back after Memorial Day with no bounce. Home appreciation in Murfreesboro is holding, but buyer traffic is sending a forward-looking signal worth watching.
Every week the Turner Victory Team tracks what is happening with home appreciation in Murfreesboro and across Rutherford County using live MLS data and the Tru Insights platform. This week brought a significant new piece of data. The federal government released its Q1 2026 House Price Index, giving buyers and sellers the first official read on home appreciation in Murfreesboro and the broader Nashville metro through March 31, 2026. The numbers are worth understanding before you make any real estate decision this summer.
All market data in this report comes from Realtracs MLS and Turner Victory Team Tru Insights, processed through the week ending May 30, 2026. For complete four-year trend charts, visit the Rutherford County market data page.
What the FHFA Q1 2026 Report Says About Home Appreciation in Murfreesboro
The Federal Housing Finance Agency released its Q1 2026 House Price Index this week, and the results for this market are worth understanding clearly. Home appreciation in Murfreesboro sits within the Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin Metropolitan Statistical Area, which gained 1.8% in a single quarter. The national average for that same quarter was just 0.5%. Our metro appreciated at more than three times the national rate.
On a year-over-year basis, home appreciation in Murfreesboro and the broader Nashville metro came in at 1.0%, compared to the national rate of 1.7%. That means nationally prices are rising faster on an annual basis, but our quarterly momentum is significantly stronger. The metro ranked 54th out of the top 100 metros nationally, placing it among the majority of markets that saw gains rather than losses.
For context, the FHFA data covers all homes with conforming mortgages. It is the most consistent federal benchmark for tracking home appreciation in Murfreesboro over time. One important note: this data covers Q1, meaning it reflects market conditions through March 31. The federal government typically releases this data roughly two months after the quarter ends. What you are reading now is the most current federal figure available.
The Weekly Numbers Behind Home Appreciation in Murfreesboro
The FHFA data tells the backward-looking story. The weekly Tru Insights data tells the forward-looking one. Home appreciation in Murfreesboro is supported by a specific market dynamic that shows up clearly in this week’s numbers. New listings came in at 141 this week compared to 178 this same week last year. That is a 20.8% drop year over year. Sellers are staying put, and that shortage of supply is the single biggest factor keeping home appreciation in Murfreesboro positive heading into summer.
| Metric | This Week | Last Year | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Active Listings | 1,527 | 1,408 | +8.4% |
| Pendings | 114 | 112 | +1.8% |
| New Listings | 141 | 178 | -20.8% |
| Months Supply | 3.56 | 3.31 | +7.5% |
| Closed | 136 | 151 | -9.9% |
Pending contracts this week came in at 114, essentially matching last year’s pace of 112 at the same point. Demand is holding steady year over year rather than growing, which adds context to the showing decline. The listing shortage is what is keeping home appreciation in Murfreesboro positive, not a surge in buyer volume. Buyers and sellers are competing on a more even playing field than the spring peak suggested.
Showing Activity: The Leading Indicator to Watch This Summer
Last week on the weekly video report, John Turner noted that showing activity had been declining for several weeks and pointed to a potential Memorial Day bounce-back as the key signal to watch. That bounce did not come. Showing activity continued to drop this week, falling to 2.0 average showings per active listing. This is now the fifth consecutive week of declining showing traffic.
Showings are a leading indicator. Buyers who schedule tours today are the ones putting in offers and buying homes in the coming days. When showing traffic drops consistently, pending contracts follow. Pending contracts are essentially flat year over year at 114 versus 112, and if the showing decline continues into June, that flat number could turn negative. Last week’s full showing activity analysis covers the trend in detail.
The showing picture varies significantly by price range. Under $300,000, homes are still drawing roughly 11 showings per listing per week. Between $300,000 and $400,000, that drops to about four showings per week. Above $400,000, showing traffic falls off sharply. If you are a seller above $500,000 and your home is not generating activity, the market is giving you clear feedback about your pricing or presentation. The overpricing penalty in Murfreesboro is real and measurable.
What Home Appreciation in Murfreesboro Means if You Are Buying or Selling
Home appreciation in Murfreesboro at 1.8% for the quarter confirms that sellers who bought before 2023 are in a solid equity position. The dramatic gains of 2021 and 2022 are not repeating, but values are not declining either. For sellers who bought in the past two to three years, the situation is more nuanced. Flat appreciation over that period means equity depends heavily on how much was put down at purchase. Some sellers in that window may find themselves close to breakeven depending on their loan and purchase price.
For buyers, home appreciation in Murfreesboro confirms that this is not a market waiting to correct. The federal data shows the metro rebounded from slight depreciation at the end of 2025 and posted a strong quarterly gain to start 2026. Buyers who have been waiting for prices to fall are facing a market where the data consistently points the other direction. Whether now is a good time to buy in Murfreesboro depends on your specific situation, but the appreciation trajectory does not support a wait-and-see strategy for most buyers.
Mortgage rates ticked up slightly this week to 6.53% from 6.51% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac. That is still below where rates were at this same point in 2025. For buyers concerned about affordability, the rate environment is not dramatically worse than last year, and the rate lock concern that is keeping sellers on the sidelines is also a factor worth understanding.
If You Are Selling
Home appreciation in Murfreesboro confirms your equity is intact. But the showing data means pricing accurately right now is not optional. Thirty percent of homes sell in the first seven days. Nearly twenty percent take over 90 days and net only 92.8% of their original asking price. The gap between those two outcomes is entirely about initial pricing. Reach out for a Tru Insights pre-listing review before you go live.
If You Are Buying
Home appreciation in Murfreesboro is positive and accelerating quarter over quarter. The data does not support waiting for a price decline. Under $400,000, competition remains real. Above $500,000, you have more negotiating room than at any point in recent years. Learn more about buying a home in Murfreesboro with live Tru Insights data guiding your search.
The Pricing Penalty in Context
One of the most actionable data points in this week’s Tru Insights report connects directly to home appreciation in Murfreesboro. While values are rising at the metro level, individual homes that are overpriced are paying a steep penalty. Right now 38% of active listings in Rutherford County have already reduced their price by an average of $23,140. Sellers who have had to reduce took 61 extra days to sell and netted 92.8% of their original asking price.
On a $400,000 home, that 7.2% gap between original ask and eventual sale price is $28,800 left on the table. Plus two additional months of carrying costs. Understanding what flat or declining home values look like for individual sellers helps put the overpricing risk in perspective. How fast homes actually sell in Murfreesboro depends almost entirely on whether the first price was the right price.
The market is sorting quickly. Homes priced correctly are still moving in the first week. Homes priced too high are sitting, generating fewer and fewer showings as the weeks pass, and ultimately selling for less than they would have at the right price from day one. Selling your home in Murfreesboro with the right data from the start is the difference between those two outcomes. How inventory has changed over three years provides useful context for understanding why pricing accuracy matters more now than it did during the peak years.
Want to Know What Home Appreciation in Murfreesboro Means for Your Address?
The Turner Victory Team will pull your specific Tru Insights data, compare your home to what has actually closed nearby, and show you exactly where you stand before you list. No pressure. Just the numbers.
Reach OutQuestions About Home Appreciation in Murfreesboro and the May 2026 Market
The federal government just released the Q1 2026 data for the Nashville-Franklin-Murfreesboro Metropolitan Statistical Area. We actually gained 1.8% in home prices in Q1 2026. That is nearly four times the national rate.
Here are three things you need to know about the Rutherford County market this week. First, the FHFA federal home price data shows our metro gained 1.8% in a single quarter, nearly four times the national rate. Second, showing activity continued to pull back after Memorial Day with no bounce. Third, new listings are down 21% from this time last year, and that is the number that is probably holding this market and home values together most right now.
I am John Turner, team leader of the Turner Victory Team with Onward Real Estate. I am here with your Murfreesboro real estate report covering all of Rutherford County including Smyrna, La Vergne, Eagleville, and all communities in between.
The Turner Victory Team Market Health Score is at 51 this week. That basically means we are in a balanced market. There are 1,527 homes available with a 3.56 month supply. When you break it down by price range, anything below $300,000 has a 2.21 month supply. Anything below $400,000 is at a 2.3 month supply, which puts it solidly in a seller’s market range. If you are a seller in those price points below $400,000, you should be getting activity on your home. If you are a buyer in those price points, you are probably facing some competition. As we go up and hit the $500,000 mark, things slow down considerably. We are at close to five months supply anywhere from $500,000 up to a million. Above a million, that market is much slower right now. The million to million and a half range has over seven months supply.
Active inventory did go up this week, sitting at 1,527 homes, a little higher than last year. Months supply has been wavering around three and a half months. A lot of this has to do with fewer listings coming on the market. If you look at the new listings chart, the 2026 line is clearly trailing below 2025 every single week. We have been trailing new listings for months. That has kept inventory from growing even more. As inventory grows, it puts downward pressure on prices. As inventory tightens, it puts upward pressure on prices. Right now, with new listings not coming on at the same velocity as past years, we are seeing months supply level off and prices holding.
Pending contracts this week came in at 114 compared to 95 this same time last year. That is a 20% increase year over year. We are still tracking above 2025 numbers on pendings despite the Memorial Day slowdown.
On showings, this is a trend we talked about last week. We had seen showings peak and then slow down. We knew Memorial Day might affect things, but historically we see a bounce back. This week we did not see that bounce. We actually saw showings drop further to 2.0 per listing. This is now five weeks of data showing we may have peaked on showings. One caveat is the mortgage rate. Rates ticked up just slightly to 6.53 from 6.51 the week before. We are in a market that is very mortgage rate sensitive. Depending on what happens with inflation and other factors, showings could pick up again. But right now the trend is that they are slowing.
Under $300,000 is still getting a lot of showings, about 11 per listing per week. Between $300,000 and $400,000 you are getting about four showings on average. But above $400,000 we are just not seeing that live activity.
With that said, 30% of all homes have sold in the first seven days in Rutherford County. Nearly 20% take over 90 days. Once you hit that 90-day mark, 61% of those homes do not sell or do not sell under that listing. And if they do sell after hitting 90 days, they are only selling for about 93% of their original asking price. There is a real cost to being on the market a long time. We were talking to a seller earlier today who said we can always come down. And you can always come down. But the stats show that if you do not price correctly from the start, it is going to take a lot longer to sell and you are going to net out less money.
Now looking at the Q1 2026 FHFA appreciation data. Looking across the national map, you can see where homes are appreciating and where they are depreciating. Austin, Texas has been hit hard. Colorado has some pockets of decline. Memphis is in the red right now. A lot of Florida is in the red, especially areas hit hard by recent hurricanes. Tennessee, except for Memphis, is all blue. East Tennessee and the Knoxville area is appreciating quite a bit. Tennessee across the board saw 1.4% appreciation in Q1 and 2.2% over the past four quarters. For the Nashville-Murfreesboro-Franklin MSA, Q1 appreciation was 1.8%, giving us a four-quarter appreciation of 1.0%.
At the end of last year, for the previous four quarters we had actually lost about eight tenths of one percent in value. So we have now rebounded. Nationally, the Nashville market ranks 54th out of the top 100 metros. We are one of 67 metros that appreciated. We are not in a declining market. Prices are going up, just not at the double-digit rates of a few years ago.
For sellers below $400,000, the window is open. If you price it right, present it right, position it right, and promote it right, you are going to get sold. But if you are a seller above $500,000, you have a lot of competition and you really need to look at where you are priced and how you are presenting your home. For buyers, if you are looking below $400,000, you better act quickly. But if you are looking above $500,000, you have more choices now than you have had in quite a while. You have some negotiating room.
I am John Turner, team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate. Please subscribe so you do not miss this each week. We appreciate you tuning in and hope to see you next week.
Get the Weekly Rutherford County Report Delivered to Your Inbox
Home appreciation in Murfreesboro, showing trends, pending sales, and price range breakdowns. Real data every Sunday from the Turner Victory Team.
See All Market Reports