Buying a House That Has Been Sitting: What the Williamson County Data Says

Welcome to the Williamson County Real Estate Report. Today we are going to talk about two ways to buy in this market. If you are a buyer looking to buy a home in Williamson County, you are going to want to pay attention to this. If you are a seller, this data helps you as well, because it applies to both sides, but it is framed for buyers. I am John Turner, team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate, and we bring you the Williamson County Real Estate Report every week.

First, the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score for Williamson County is at 43 right now, which means we are in a balanced market leaning toward buyers. This has changed over the past few weeks. We were leaning toward sellers a little, and we have seen this trend toward buyers. A lot of things go into that score. Much of it is local, the Williamson County market itself. We do look at some national factors like mortgage rates. The formula tries to bring it down to what is actually happening in Williamson County.

Right now we have 1,765 active listings, just under a four month supply, and the 30 year fixed mortgage rate is at 6.69%, which is higher than anything we have seen all year. There is some information out that may help with mortgage rates. Most of this increase has to do with events overseas. It is not the first time I have come on here on a weekend and said it looks like there may be some relief and then there was not. I look at the data. I do not try to predict the future, even though the data does help us notice trends.

Out of the 1,765 homes on the market, the blue on the chart references new construction. So 28% of all homes on the market right now are new construction. A hundred thirty four homes came on the market this week, and almost 57% of those were new construction. But out of 104 pendings, about 20% was new construction.

Looking at months of supply, anything below $1.5 million is in the green right now, which is really something. A couple of your highest points, where you are approaching a four month supply, are the $700,000 to $800,000 range and under $500,000. We have talked about that quite a bit. That is an anomaly in Williamson County, where the lowest price ranges have higher months of supply. A lot of that has to do with homes that have attached walls, so condos and townhomes. We have seen that market hurt a little, not only in Williamson County but across Middle Tennessee and across the nation. There have had to be some price adjustments to get those sold. Between $1.5 million and $3 million we are still in a balanced market, and above $3 million you get into a market that favors buyers.

Our active inventory is almost the highest we have seen this year, and actually over the past several years. We are five below the peak. Last year this is where we saw a drop off and it continued to drop. We are still seeing a build right now. It will be interesting to see if this continues to build over the next couple of weeks or drops off. That created a bit of a gap in months of supply compared to last year. Last year we had 3.42 months of supply. Now we are at 3.98. So a little over half a month higher than this time last year.

New listings continue to be down. Over the past five or six weeks we have been way down compared to last year on new listings. That is not new construction, that is new homes for sale coming on the market.

Our pendings have leveled out. We had 104 this week versus 102 the week before, so that is pretty consistent. The interesting thing is it is below what we saw last year, quite a bit. We had 120 last year and 115 a week ago last year. There was a big drop in 2025 right after this point. We will watch to see if that happens next week or if we can hold this level. If this level continues, the second half will outperform last year.

On speed of the market, out of the homes that go under contract in Williamson County right now, over 41% are going under contract the first week they are on the market. The dark blue is anything that went under contract within seven days. The gray is anything between eight and 89 days, which is 44%. Then 90 days or more is 14%. Remember, that is not the whole market. That is just the homes that went under contract, which is going to be important when we get into some stats in a second.

On showings by price range, most of ours are now above 1.5 showings per listing per week. We have seen a slight rebound. Showings had dropped off for many weeks. Last week it was 1.42 showings per listing across Williamson County, and we are up to 1.63. Whether that trend continues remains to be seen.

Now let us talk about the two markets and a strategy if you are looking to buy. Across Williamson County right now, out of all the active inventory, 576 homes have been sitting on the market for over 90 days. With that said, they still sell. Right now 32% of all inventory has been on the market 90 days or more, but 18% of every closing came off that sitting list. So they are still selling, not at the percentage that homes are selling in the first and second week, but they are selling.

So one of your strategies as a buyer might be to look at one of the homes that has been on the market a while. Chances are they missed on something, presentation or price or both. I am not going to speak much to presentation, because I have not been in every single one of these houses. I have been in some, but not all.

Look at this. For homes under a million dollars in Williamson County right now, if the home went under contract in the first week, it went under contract for basically $1,700 less than what it was listed for. This does not take into consideration any concessions, because we do not have accurate data on all of that. Homes that were on the market eight to 30 days, and there were 229 of those, went under contract for $18,000 less than their original asking price. Not their asking price at the time, but the original one. So a lot of this may involve a price reduction rather than the seller coming down at the negotiating table. Either way, we are looking at the original list price and then what it sold for. From 31 to 90 days, that gap is almost $38,000.

But look at anything that went over 90 days in Williamson County, priced below one million, and sold. There are 156 of those homes. On average they sold for $85,000 less than what they were originally asking. Again, a lot of that is price reductions. What that tells you is that the people who priced it correctly and presented it correctly got close to their asking price, whereas the people who shot for the moon did not. We hear this all the time. We can always come down on our price. I cannot tell you how many times I have heard that. Yes, you can, but it hurts you.

And not only does it hurt you there. Look at this. The homes that sold in that first week sold for 99.7% of their asking price. The homes that sold after 90 days sold for 97% of their asking price. You might say that does not equate to the $85,000 I just showed you. You are right. What we are showing here is after all the price reductions. However many they had, when they finally got a contract, they sold for 97% of what that last asking price was. So they are two to three percent below their last asking price, plus whatever else they reduced along the way.

That shows you, from a seller standpoint, the importance of pricing correctly. From a buyer standpoint, you can do one of two things. You can chase after the new listings, which is perfectly fine, and maybe chase is not the right word. There is a lot of buyer frustration out there right now, because as I showed you earlier, inventory in Williamson County is rising. The problem is that from a buyer standpoint, we hear all the time that the homes on the market are not meeting their expectations on presentation and pricing. Something is not matching, maybe both. Those are the homes we end up calling passover homes, because buyers just pass them over. They have seen them, they keep showing up in the MLS, and they are not interested.

But whenever a home comes on the market and it meets that criteria, presented and priced correctly, that is the 39.7% that went under contract in the first seven days of the ones that went under contract. And they go nearly full price. So if you are a buyer, you have to be patient. That is one strategy. Wait for that house to come on the market, and when it does, you have to be ready to go, because it is very possible you will be in competition for it.

The other strategy is to look at the ones that have been on the market 90 days. Your agent can pull that information for you, a whole list of homes that have been on the market over 90 days. If you are truly in the market looking, you have probably already seen those houses and everything looks great except for the price. Based on the data we have, you might go in there and negotiate a much better price.

With that said, we have to acknowledge that someone who bought their house within the past two or three years may not have the negotiating room. They may not be able to, based on what they bought it for. Not that the market cares what they bought it for. The market cares what it is worth. But they may not have the flexibility to reduce their price more. Maybe they owe too much on their mortgage. People who have owned their house for a while, most people who have owned since 2020 or 2021, have quite a bit of equity. So they might be willing to reduce that price. I have noticed a lot of sellers are willing to reduce the price if they have an offer on the table. They just do not want to reduce it that much without one. I get the psychology of it, even though it is not the right strategy. So if you are a buyer, in my opinion it does not hurt to throw out an offer at market price.

Those are a couple of different ways you can look at the market and find something that will work for you. Because just because a house has been on the market for a while, and I had this discussion yesterday with some clients, it does not mean it is a bad house. It may just mean they have not got the right price on it. If you can get that price where you want it to be, it may be the perfect house for you.

I hope this data helps you. We enjoy bringing it to you every week. It is fun, but it also really helps our clients. If you are thinking about buying or selling in Williamson County, our team would love to help you. Most of our agents have been with us for over a decade, and some for over two decades. Very good agents, very knowledgeable, and we would love to walk you through the process. Feel free to reach out to me, John Turner, or any of our team members at the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate. We bring this information to you every week, so please subscribe. We also send out an email every week. If you want to get on the list, email me directly at John at TurnerVictory.com and tell me you want the Williamson County Real Estate Report. Until next week, make it a great week.