August Home Sales in Rutherford County: 100 Fewer Than 2024

Welcome to the Murfreesboro Real Estate Report. We have some really good information for you this week as we recap August 2026, along with looking at some of the real estate information that came out this past week. I am John Turner, team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate, and we bring this report to you every week.

Let’s jump into our August numbers. First of all, new listings, meaning new homes coming on the market, were down 9% for the month of August. The interesting thing is that new homes under contract were down 13%. So even though we had fewer homes coming on the market, we sold at an even lower rate. Our inventory actually grew 5% for the month.

Average inventory went up from 1,597 properties on the market last year to 1,676. So about 80 more properties were on the market on any given day in August of this year versus last year.

Closings were down 12% from last year. If you look at the chart that includes 2024, there were 545 closings in August 2024 in Rutherford County. Then 505 in 2025, and then 446 this year. So there was basically a 100 unit drop between 2024 and 2026 in August as far as closings go.

Our average sales price was down 2%, at almost $484,000. The median sales price was $426,000, also down 2%. Now does that mean prices are dropping? Not necessarily. It could just mean that more homes in lower price points are selling versus higher price points. When you start looking at medians and averages, those can be influenced depending on what bracket of homes are selling. With that said, we are getting downward pressure on prices, especially in certain particular price points.

For this particular week, the Turner Victory Team Market Health Score is a 42. So we are calling it a balanced market, but definitely leaning toward buyers. Last week it was 40. There have been just a couple of slight changes that turned it a little more in favor of sellers, but buyers, you are still in a good position in this market.

We have 1,656 homes on the market right now, 3.38 months supply across the board, and the 30 year rate at 6.71%. That is not helping sellers if you are wanting to sell your home. Buyers, if you can afford it, it is actually helping you. Even though your payment is a little higher right now, there are sellers who are motivated and looking to make deals.

One third of those homes on the market are new construction. We had 216 listings come on the market last week, which is actually a pretty high number. Of those, 99 pended and 111 closed. Some of that caught the last couple days of the month, which is generally where you will have more closings. People still like to close at the end of the month.

If you look below $500,000, you are still in the green, so it is still a seller’s market in those price ranges. But once you get above $400,000 you are really starting to creep into more of a balanced market. If this continues, the $400,000 to $500,000 range may actually turn yellow here in the next few weeks.

On inventory, we are not quite as high as our peak but we are still pretty close. We see a leveling out point here. Traditionally we are at the point of the year where we level off and start going down. I would assume we will do that this year as well.

Months supply right now is 3.38. That means if nothing else came on the market and sales continued at the rate they have been going, it would take 3.38 months to sell all that inventory. It is higher than it has been the past couple of years, and we are starting to see a separation from where we were last year. For a while we were running neck and neck with last year.

New listings were way down in August compared to last year. July was down even more. And even though this week’s number jumped up to 216, you can see this time last year the number was even higher. So even though 216 seems like a lot of homes coming on the market, I would submit that a lot of them were new construction where builders had put them in the MLS, and after a period of time those expire, so they bring them back on. They are not all existing homes just coming on the market. As a matter of fact, we have seen a trend toward existing homes leaving the market rather than coming on.

On pendings, we talked about how they were down quite a bit in August. One bright note is that this week we were up 13 units from this time last year. It is a slight increase, but it is an increase. That is a good sign, but it is not a trend.

Whenever I look at August, we had 440 pendings this year. If I go back to August of last year, we had 507. That is a 67 unit difference. If we look at September of last year, 461 homes were sold, but we have a pending difference in August of minus 67. I do not make many predictions here, but I thought this would be a fun one. My prediction is that there will be 415 homes sold in September of 2026. That is just something for fun to look at.

There is a bright spot when we look at showings. Showings have been up the past couple of weeks from where we bottomed out. It is not a huge increase, just a slight increase. Remember, this is a 30 day rolling average.

We take four weeks ago, which is the gray, and this past week, which is the darker navy, and we look at the change. There has been a real uptick in showings under $300,000 and in the $300,000s. There is a drop off in the $400,000s and $500,000s. But in the $600,000s, definitely in the $700,000s, and above a million, we are seeing showings pick up over what they were four weeks ago.

When we look at momentum, anything in green means we are getting more showings in that price range. Anything in red is fewer showings. In the $300,000s we gained nearly a showing per listing over the past four weeks. Over a million, same thing. Even the $700,000s picked up about half a showing more over the past four weeks.

But if you look here at the $500,000s, if you have a house in the $500,000s right now, that is the price range where we are really seeing people affected. In the lower price ranges you are still seeing new home buyers come into the market, or someone downsizing, but a lot of first time buyers because the numbers still make sense over rent. In the $500,000s, because of where mortgage rates are right now, because of the value or lack of value buyers are seeing at that price point, and because of all the inventory, you have got to be very aggressive with your pricing. We are seeing it in the $400,000s too, but not quite as much. And $800,000 to a million is a very similar situation.

Basically right now we have some price points, and it has been this way especially since the middle of June, where it is tough to sell. But also, as a buyer, you have to think about this. If sellers are having a hard time selling, then as a buyer I am a commodity and I probably can work a pretty good deal. That does not mean you are going to steal something. There might be a steal out there somewhere, but for the most part there is not. We are not talking market crashes or anything like that.

I was having a conversation this week with my wife about numbers and about what we thought was going to happen with the market. I think for the first time we really are feeling like there is quite a bit of downward pressure on prices. Not just something passing. I think there are certain price points where we are seeing so much pressure that you are going to see a fairly good decline. Again, not a crash, but a fairly good decline. So many buyers are not willing to pay what sellers are asking right now, especially with mortgage rates the way they are.

I think we all kind of thought we would get a little relief from mortgage rates and they would go back down to six or six and a quarter. We are just not seeing that. And the longer rates stay up, the more downward pressure there is going to be on prices.

Let’s think about 2020, 2021, and 2022. There were a lot of things that made the market very active, but the number one thing was that mortgage rates were so low. That caused prices to really take off because there was so much competition for so few houses. We have the opposite now. Mortgage rates are what is causing things to slow down.

I know all of us older folks say, well, when I bought my first house it was eight and three quarters percent interest and I was very glad to have it. I bought a brand new house, 1,300 square feet, half acre in West Murfreesboro, and I bought it for $74,000. At the time I was making six or seven dollars an hour and was able to afford a house. Times have changed, and mortgage rates are really impacting what people are able to afford, because home prices went up so much. This market is really trying to find a balance, and until we have a good balance, this market is going to struggle.

The balance has to come from one of three places. Mortgage rates have to come down, wages have to go up, or prices have to come down. As a seller, I have no say over wages. I do not have control over mortgage rates, though you can offer incentives to help buy down that rate to make it more affordable for a buyer. So you do have a little bit of control there. But the one thing I do have control of is the price.

You really have to get your pricing where you stand out from the competition. There is so much competition out there that you have got to do something to stand out. It does not just pay to be the prettiest, you also have to be priced correctly. And remember, you are competing against new construction as well.

When I take all this in, I really think that a few months down the road we are going to look back and say prices have had to come down some. Now buyers, please do not hear this as a crash. I am not seeing that. All these foreclosures people say banks are holding, I am not seeing that. That is a lot of people online trying to get clicks. If you are waiting for that, I think you are going to be waiting quite a while. You buy when the timing is right. I think there may be a few more opportunities ahead of us than there are right now.

But with that said, there are some great houses that have hit the market that are priced right and presented right, and I certainly would not be afraid to jump on something like that. I do feel like mortgage rates probably will not go up much more, fingers crossed, but I do not know that they are going to go down much for a little while either. When they do, if you buy now, you can refinance. Even a half a percent or three quarters of a percent will certainly change your payment.

So you have what is going on and a little bit of a prediction. I always tell people my crystal ball is cracked, so take my predictions with a grain of salt. But after looking at this stuff every day and every week for years, you start to get a feel for what is happening, plus from talking with buyers and sellers and getting their perspective.

I hope that helps you. I hope if you are in the market it gives you some information. I hope if you are an agent it is helping educate you a little bit. If you are not in the market but want to be, please reach out to myself and our team. We love using this information to help our clients. We bring this to you every week. It is something we thrive on and enjoy, and we hope you are getting something out of it as well. Thank you for tuning in, and until next week, I am John Turner, team leader of the Turner Victory Team at Onward Real Estate, and I hope you make it a great week.